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Key Takeaways
- Home sales in January tumbled 8.4% from December levels.
- Weather likely played a role, the National Association of Realtors said, while low inventory levels helped keep prices elevated.
- Economists expect sales to improve this year thanks to lower mortgage rates, but affordability issues are expected to persist.
Only a few short weeks ago, December home sales surged to their strongest level in nearly three years and home sellers were optimistic about the future. Mortgage rates were down, sales were up and there was hope that home buying activity was about to pick up after several slow years.
On Thursday, real estate professionals were reminded that the current housing market is still rough for both home sellers and buyers.
Existing home sales in January were down 8.4% from December, coming in at an annualized rate below 4 million. That kept housing market activity near decades-low levels, where it’s been for the past three years.
“The decrease in sales is disappointing,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), in a statement.
Why This Matters to You
The housing market plays a major role in the U.S. economy, influencing everything from construction jobs and consumer spending to household wealth and inflation. When sales fall even as mortgage rates decline, it highlights how limited inventory and elevated prices can keep affordability strained.
Affordability is Improving
Home sales fell in January despite improved conditions, with home borrowing costs hitting their lowest levels since 2022. Mortgage rates averaged 6.1% in January, down from nearly 7% a year ago.
“Affordability conditions are improving,” Yun said. “This is due to wage gains outpacing home price growth and mortgage rates being lower than a year ago. However, supply has not kept pace and remains quite low.”
There were fewer home listings in January, leaving potential buyers with fewer options and allowing home sellers to demand higher prices. But the pace of home price acceleration has slowed from recent years. In January, the median price was $396,800, up just 0.9% from the same point last year.
“Low supply is still keeping home price appreciation in positive territory,” wrote Wells Fargo economists Charlie Dougherty and Ali Hajibeigi. “Inventory is up 3.4% over the past year, but availability no longer appears to be increasing rapidly and is still far below pre-pandemic averages, implying moderate home price appreciation ahead.”
Weather Was a Big Factor
The weather was one issue impacting home sales. Yun said that the cold and wet conditions in early January made it difficult to assess what was behind the sales decline.
But home sales were depressed nationwide, including areas where weather wasn’t a big factor, said Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers. Even so, the weather may continue to affect home sales in the coming months, he wrote.
“The cold start to 2026 may continue to limit new listings for buyers in coming months, especially within the Midwest and Northeast regions,” Ayers wrote. “Falling mortgage rates should provide a boost to home sales once the weather warms up.”
Economists expect a thaw in the frozen market conditions this spring, but that may not be enough to return the housing market to its pre-pandemic strength. Wells Fargo noted that a meaningful improvement in affordability seemed “far off in the distance,” while Ayers said low inventory levels were likely to continue to plague the market.
“With home prices cooling or even declining in some locales, affordability concerns are easing slowly,” wrote Ayers, who projected home sales levels to improve in 2026. “Still, there is likely a cap on how much sales activity can improve in the near term with supply constraints widespread in many areas.”
