Mortgage purchase application data
2026 has had the best start to purchase application data in years, with multiyear highs in this index last seen in early 2023, when rates reached 5.99% before rising to 8% later that year. However, this year, conditions differ markedly for mortgage rates: the Fed has already cut rates substantially since 2023 and mortgage spreads are roughly back to normal. I was anticipating a larger hit in this data because rates moved just a tad higher last week and the massive winter storm affected two-thirds of the country, but we didn’t see much of a hit: purchase apps were down 0.4% week over week and up 18% year over year.
These applications typically lead sales data by 30 to 90 days. Here’s 2026 so far:
- 2 positive week-over-week results
- 0 negative week-to-week prints
- 1 flat week-to-week print
- 3 weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth
Weekly pending sales
Weekly pending home sales offer a week-to-week perspective, though results can be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations. Last week once again showed positive week-to-week and year-over-year growth. I was really shocked by the growth here. Our weekly pending sales are highly sensitive to holiday and weather-related impacts, but they still eked out a positive week. These figures are typically reflected in the existing home sales report 30 to 60 days after pending sales are recorded.
Weekly pending sales for last week in the past few years:
- 2026: 57,865
- 2025: 56,270
10-year yield and mortgage rates
In the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the following ranges:
- Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60%
We have had a lot of economic drama lately, and the 10-year yield and 30-year mortgage rate have done very little. There has been little movement in mortgage rates despite last week’s Fed meeting and the announcement of the new Fed chairman. Much of this stability is due to spreads being close to normal now. The 10-year yield was still near monthly highs last week.
Mortgage rates were flat for the week, ending at 6.16%, according to Mortgage News Daily. Considering the events that happened last week, it was a very chill week. Mortgage rate lock data from Polly shows a weekend rate of 6.27%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage rates have remained stable in part because mortgage spreads have improved significantly, especially early this year. Better mortgage spreads was an incredibly important story in 2025, and that trend is continuing in 2026.
Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week’s spreads closed at 1.86%. If spreads matched the 2023 peak levels, mortgage rates would be 1.25 percentage points higher, at 7.41%. With spreads returning to normal, mortgage pricing can remain lower for longer than in previous years.
Weekly housing inventory data
The growth in housing inventory over the past few years has been the best overall story for the housing market; it has created a much more balanced and healthy marketplace. Last year, at one point, the inventory growth was running at 33% year over year, but after mid-June, the growth rate slowed down noticeably as demand picked up. That said, we are still seeing good year-over-year inventory growth.
- Weekly inventory change: (Jan. 23-Jan. 30): Inventory fell from 697,868 to 696,222
- Same week last year: (Jan. 24-Jan. 31): Inventory fell from 635,529 to 634,936
New listings data
New listings data for 2026 has been encouraging, even with a drop-off last week. We want to get this line above 80,000 during the seasonal peak period and show some growth, as most home sellers are buyers as well. In a normal market, we would be seeing 80,000 to 100,000 new listings per week during the seasonal peak months. For context, during the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for several years.
Here is last week’s new listings data for the past two years:
- 2026: 48,415
- 2025: 48,883
Price-cut percentage
Typically, about one-third of homes undergo price reductions, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. As mortgage rates and inventory rise together, the percentage of price cuts will increase. However, rates are near multiyear lows, so what is happening with our price-cut percentage data now? After a very long time, we have seen our first slight year-over-year decline in our price-cut percentage data, which isn’t surprising given that inventory growth has slowed and demand is up.
The price-cut percentage for last week:
The week ahead: Jobs week!
It’s that time again: jobs week! Of course, my belief has always been that the softer labor market was the primary reason mortgage rates fell last year, so we must keep an eye on all the labor data that comes out this week and how the bond market reacts to it. The key labor data line for me is jobless claims, which remain historically low.
This week we will also have ISM data and Fed speeches as well, but it will primarily be about jobs and the bond market reaction to them.
