- China underpinned oil prices in 2025 by aggressively stockpiling crude.
- Crude imports hit record highs, with December stockpiling estimated at 2.67 million bpd—the fastest pace since 2020—as Beijing took advantage of low prices and expanded storage capacity.
- Stockbuilding is set to remain a key market stabilizer in 2026, with China potentially adding up to 170 million barrels to storage.
China played a big role in supporting in 2025 as it accelerated crude stockpiling and absorbed part of the additional supply that producers put on the market.
Despite the easing of the OPEC+ cuts, the large supply growth from the Americas, and the continued flow of sanctioned Iranian, Russian, and Venezuelan barrels for most of 2025, oil prices did not collapse.
International crude benchmarks held steady at about $60 per barrel, which China apparently considers cheap enough to buy more crude than it immediately needs and put it in commercial or strategic storage.
Last year, China boosted its crude oil imports to an annual all-time high. The record imports came despite weak transportation fuel demand and struggles on some fronts in the Chinese economy amid the constantly changing U.S. tariff policy and chaotic global markets, including commodity markets, which reacted to many geopolitical flashpoints.
Going forward, China has room for even more stockpiling and could continue to amass crude in storage tanks to try to insulate itself from further market and geopolitical disruptions with an erratic U.S. President and uncertain American foreign and trade policy.
The pace of China’s storage builds will largely depend on the price of oil. Data compiled from official import and refinery processing figures have shown in recent years that Beijing has a certain price point – at about high $70s-$80 per barrel – beyond which it slows down crude stockpiling.
But with oil in the $60s, and falling official selling prices of Middle Eastern crudes versus regional benchmarks, China doesn’t hesitate to buy much more crude than its immediate oil demand numbers would suggest.
China Stockpiling Hit Multi-Year High in December
In December 2025, China is estimated to have amassed the highest crude volumes in one month since June 2020, when the COVID pandemic and the resulting lockdowns hit oil demand and crashed prices.
Unlike the United States, China does not report inventories. Analysts are looking at overall supply (domestic production plus imports) and refinery processing rates to estimate how much crude is going into strategic or commercial reserves and how much is being processed into fuels.
The difference between total supply and refinery throughput is generally considered to have gone into storage. This figure soared to a 2.67 million barrels per day (bpd) stockpiling rate in December, compared to 1.88 million bpd in November, according to official data crunched by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell.
December was the culmination of a trend that had started in March and April 2025, when China accelerated crude stockpiling. This view of China’s increased stockpiling was supported by the fact that China’s immediate oil demand remained lackluster while imports continued to rise.
Crude oil imports into China last year hit the highest ever, reaching 11.55 million bpd, up by 4.4% compared to 2024, official Chinese data showed earlier this month.
The December total was also a record high, at an average of 13.18 million bpd.
Since April 2025, China’s crude stockpiling has supported international oil prices into the $60-$70 a barrel range, despite trade wars, concerns about the economy, and soaring supply from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ exporters.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also sees China’s stockpiling as supporting oil prices. The EIA estimated crude oil inventories in China increased by about 900,000 bpd between January and August 2025, “essentially acting as a source of demand by removing barrels from the global markets.”
China’s Crude Stockpiling Will Be Key Market Driver in 2026
Going forward, China’s crude stockpiling will be one of the top oil market drivers this year, together with geopolitics and sanctioned supply, U.S. crude supply trends, and OPEC+ moves, according to Kpler.
“China’s stockbuilding was a critical pillar of oil demand in 2025 and will remain a key stabiliser in 2026,” said Kpler’s Homayoun Falakshahi.
Uncertainties around sanctioned barrels, especially in the latter half of 2025, were part of China’s increased crude hoarding last year. But other factors were also in play, including the launch of 32 million barrels of new storage capacity, opportunistic buying at low prices, and government mandates to refill strategic reserves, according to Kpler.
This year, China is set to expand onshore storage capacity by another 94 million barrels and “stockbuilding could repeat 2025’s pace and may even accelerate,” Kpler reckons.
If utilization of storage capacity rises to about 60%, China could add up to 170 million barrels of crude stocks in 2026, equivalent to nearly 500,000 bpd over the year. This would help absorb a large portion of the 1.8 million bpd surplus Kpler has forecast for this year.
Chinese stockpiling could provide a floor under prices. Amid uncertainties around the supply of heavy sour crude from Venezuela, stockpiling will become even more strategic this year, according to the intelligence firm.
“China may not be driving demand growth in the traditional sense, but in 2026, it could once again act as the oil market’s shock absorber,” Kpler said.
