:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/GettyImages-1855948758-5568d63d490d4457bb9d7b34e5869c69.jpg "We’re All Worried About the Economy’s Future—But Some of Us Are Still Spending Anyway")
:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc():format(jpeg)/GettyImages-1855948758-5568d63d490d4457bb9d7b34e5869c69.jpg)
Key Takeaways
- The widely followed Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to its lowest level since May 2014, as worries over job losses and inflation persisted.
- Despite a recent trend of dour consumer survey readings, the economy has been expanding, and consumers keep spending, driven primarily by high-income consumers.
- Despite the poor confidence, economists expect consumers to continue spending in 2026.
Consumer confidence plunged in January, but fears about the future aren’t stopping some people from spending.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index is hitting its lowest levels since 2014 on Tuesday. It comes after another widely followed sentiment survey last week showed consumers remained in a poor mood in January, with a reading 20% below the same time a year ago. Consumers say they’re worried about jobs, inflation, tariffs, groceries and health insurance.
But with spending continuing at a robust pace, and data showing continued economic expansion, are consumers saying one thing and doing another?
“It is always worth taking consumer confidence readings in context and remembering that vibes are not always fully reflected in spending,” wrote Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein. “That said, it still bears noting that consumers felt more confident at the height of the pandemic than they do now.”
Why This Matters for the Economy
Consumer confidence influences major financial decisions like spending, saving, and investing, so a sharp drop can signal future risks to economic growth, even if it hasn’t yet shown up in hard data. An economy propped up by higher-income households can mask stress for many consumers and shape how investors think about inflation, earnings, and recession risk.
K-Shaped Economy Driving Split Between Attitudes, Action
What’s fueling this diverging trend? Economists point to what’s called the “K-shaped” economy, where lower earners struggle more, while high-income spenders help drive spending and economic growth numbers higher.
For example, people making more than $125,000 a year increased their 2025 holiday season spending by nearly 30% this year, while lower-income groups all pulled back on their holiday spending, according to a report from PwC. Similarly, a Federal Reserve Bank of Boston report from August showed that consumer spending since 2022 has been primarily driven by high-income households.
“The K-shaped economy is great for the top 20%, but many middle-class and moderate-income Americans are barely keeping up,” wrote Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “For now, Americans do continue to spend. While Navy Federal sees some evidence of moderate-income consumers pulling back, overall consumption is holding up in January despite the gloomy mood.”
And despite the pessimistic attitudes revealed in survey questions, economists expect consumer spending and economic growth to remain robust this year.
“This trend should continue in 2026 with a continued boost from AI spending and productivity gains,” wrote Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers.
Another reason for economic optimism is an expected boost from government stimulus from tax changes in the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”
“We expect that larger tax refunds and additional fiscal stimulus will provide a shot in the arm for many households worried about a softening labor market and rising prices,” Ayers wrote. “This should keep consumer spending solid in coming months despite the weak consumer confidence results for January.”
