Oil prices have bounced back following President Trump’s proposed Venezuelan oil sale, as markets are focused on how the bold takeover of the Venezuelan oil industry is putting pressure on other U.S. adversaries as well as a report that showed OPEC December oil production fell by 100,000 bpd month on month to 28.40 million bpd, led by drops with the issues with Iran and Venezuela.
Not only are we watching the possibility of a 50% tariff bill making its way through the House, which could slap a whopping 500% tariff on any country buying Russian oil potentially cutting off more Russian heavy oil supply, but there’s also dramatic action unfolding in Iran as the Iranian people rise up against the tyranny of the tyrant, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
President Trump has pledged to respond forcefully if Iranian authorities target protesters, and he’s even suggested that Cuba could see rapid change if its oil supply is cut off.
Fox News reported this week that the head of Iran’s military threatened preemptive action over “rhetoric” targeting the country as the regime faces massive protests. Iran’s Maj. Gen. Amir Hatami was likely responding to President Donald Trump’s warning that America would act if violence was used against protesters. This threat along with unrest in Iran is raising the risk stakes for oil.
Bloomberg reported that Iran restricted internet and phone access overnight in response to growing protests, as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared he would not concede to demonstrators. The death toll has reached 42 since unrest began late last year, according to the US-based Human Rights News Agency; the BBC has confirmed at least 21 deaths. The protests, starting December 28 in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar after a currency slump, mark the most serious challenge to Khamenei’s government since 2022.
Fox News also reported that President Donald Trump said Thursday the United States will expand operations against drug cartels while touting his takedown of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro during an interview on “Hannity.” “We’ve knocked out 97 percent of the drugs coming in by water, and we are going to start now hitting land,” Trump told Fox News host Sean Hannity. “The cartels are running Mexico, it’s very sad to watch and see what’s happened to that country.” “They’re killing 250,000, 300,000 in our country every single year.”
At the White House, President Donald Trump is proudly gathering America’s top energy leaders and trading powerhouses to chart an exciting new future for Venezuela’s oil industry. This dynamic meeting brings together representatives from nearly 20 influential companies—including , , (with CEO Ryan Lance expected), Continental Resources (led by Harold Hamm), Halliburton, HKN Energy, Valero, Marathon Petroleum (with CEO Maryann Mannen expected), Shell, Repsol, Eni, Hilcorp, Aspect Holdings, Tallgrass Energy, and Raisa Energy.
Major trading firms Trafigura and Vitol Americas are also at the table, demonstrating the global reach and competitive spirit of American business. Our Cabinet is well represented with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, all championing the interests of the United States.
While no binding deals will be made today, President Trump will passionately outline the economic promise and the patriotic value of investing in Venezuela’s oil sector. It’s a bold turnaround from the previous administration, which shied away from engaging American companies when setting energy policy. Now, under President Trump’s leadership, America is back in the driver’s seat—ready to lead, innovate, and ensure prosperity for our nation and our allies.
In Venezuela, President Trump is determined to bring security and opportunity to even the most remote and challenging parts like the Carabobo, an oil field located in Venezuela ‘s jungle known as the Orinoco Belt, which he hopes will drive a new wave of growth in heavy oil production. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that, “The Treasury Department’s phone is ringing off the hook,” he said, as independent oil companies and enterprising wildcatters line up, eager to help unlock Venezuela’s vast resources without delay.
Yet he warns that the biggest multinational oil firms remain bogged down by red tape and cautious corporate boards, it’s the agile, fearless independents who are embracing this moment and leading the charge. “The big oil companies who move slowly, who have corporate boards, are not interested,” Bessent remarked,
Meanwhile, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum has declared an end to the era of discounts on Venezuelan oil for China, launching a bold new chapter in U.S. energy leadership. America is asserting itself on the world stage—pushing Russia out of Venezuela’s oil market and supporting a dramatic shift as Venezuela stops using Russian diluent. This represents a notable shift in global relationships, with the United States taking steps to promote stability and growth both domestically and internationally.
And already Chevron is seeking the green light to export crude produced by Venezuela’s state oil company, PDVSA, sparking intense competition among oil giants like Vitol and others as they pursue lucrative export deals in talks with U.S. officials.
India’s largest oil refiner is reconsidering Venezuelan crude as risks mount in dealing with Russia, possibly reopening a chapter that closed less than a year ago. Energy Secretary Wright stated that China will continue to access Venezuelan oil, reflecting the administration’s aim for energy stability. Venezuela’s oil output may rise by 50% in 18 months. Chevron remains the only major U.S. oil company in Venezuela since ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil exited after the 2007 nationalization.
Oil prices are going to keep a close eye on what comes out of today’s meeting with President Trump but the focus also has to be on Iran. If Iran does indeed lash out, that could give oil a price spike on fear buying and the ripple effects on Russia will be very interesting and we’ll see if the new pressure on Russia brings them back to the table. The huge drop in the US trade deficit is also a positive and the outlook for the US economy looks fairly solid as its demand expectations continue to rise.
is riding a rollercoaster, with prices swinging wildly as the weather warms up and traders scramble to keep up. The latest EIA weekly report showed a bigger-than-expected storage withdrawal—119 Bcf pulled versus the usual 92 Bcf. That’s bullish news, but guess what? Prices still took a nosedive. Why? Forecasts point to a mild January, squashing demand and sending prices tumbling nearly 25–26% from those early winter highs. Sure, LNG exports are surging at near-record levels (about 18.5 Bcf a day), and storage is running 31 Bcf above the five-year norm, but heavy supply and warmer weather are keeping a lid on any rally. Right now, Henry Hub futures for February are trading in the $3.39–$3.45 zone, and spot prices have slumped to nearly $3.11—down sharply from the $5 peaks we saw just a month ago. Bottom line: traders are playing the range, watching for a cold snap, and keeping a close eye on the Fox Weather ap to keep up on those market-moving weather shifts.
