These Stocks Could Gain From Venezuela’s Upheaval

The U.S. is planning big changes for Venezuela’s oil industry after ousting the country’s president. Shares of a handful of U.S. companies stand to benefit from the upheaval.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Wednesday said that the U.S. will control Venezuelan oil sales “indefinitely,” funneling proceeds to American banks and rolling back sanctions that have choked the country’s crude exports for years. Refiners Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) and Phillips 66 (PSX) rose on the news.

Chevron (CVX) is the only U.S. oil major still operating in Venezuela. That head start could be worth billions if the Trump administration follows through on its promise to rebuild the country’s energy sector.

Venezuela has more proven reserves than any other country, but years of economic turmoil, corruption and sanctions have dramatically curtailed its ability to produce and export oil.

So which stocks are positioned to gain from a revitalization of Venezuela’s oil industry?

Stocks Positioned For Gains

Normally, U.S. investors can access foreign markets through brokers who can trade stocks on foreign stock exchanges or American depositary receipts (ADRs) that let them trade foreign stocks on U.S. exchanges. There are also exchange-traded funds covering many countries and regions.

Venezuela offers none of these. No ADRs trade on American exchanges, and no Venezuela ETF exists, though Teucrium Investment Advisors filed for one on Jan. 5. That leaves indirect plays: U.S.-listed companies with exposure to Venezuela’s potential recovery.

Those companies fall into four categories: producers already there; other major oil companies, some with outstanding debts from before they exited Venezuela; the services firms that would win reconstruction contracts; and the Gulf Coast refiners built to process the heavy crude Venezuela produces.

The One Oil Major Left in Venezuela

Chevron (CVX): It’s the only American major still in Venezuela. It operates joint ventures with PDVSA, the state oil company, that account for about a quarter of the country’s output and exports about 140,000 barrels per day. Morningstar analyst Allen Good has said it’s the best-positioned among the oil majors to benefit.

Oil Majors That Could Return to the Country

ConocoPhillips (COP) and Exxon Mobil (XOM): They left Venezuela after the 2007 nationalizations but have up to $12 billion and $1.4 billion, respectively, in outstanding claims for property the government expropriated.

JPMorgan analysts say the companies could return to recover seized assets, should the Venezuelan government allow it.

Companies That Build Oil Infrastructure

Halliburton (HAL) and SLB (SLB): Many of Venezuela’s pipelines are more than 50 years old, its refineries run at 20% capacity or less, and estimates suggest it would cost at least $100 billion over a decade or more to return production to 1990s levels. That’s years of contracts for service firms, should any money for them materialize.

Refiners That Can Handle Venezuela’s Heavy Crude

Valero (VLO): Michael Burry, of “Big Short” fame, revealed this week that he’s owned Valero since 2020. He argues that Gulf Coast refineries are “purpose-built for Venezuelan heavy crude” and would eventually “produce better margins across jet fuel, asphalt, and diesel.” Valero operates 15 refineries that can process 3.2 million barrels per day of the heavy, sour crude Venezuela produces.

Phillips 66 (PSX): Another Gulf Coast refiner that can handle Venezuela’s heavy crude. CEO Mark Lashier said after Maduro’s capture that the company’s Lake Charles refinery in Louisiana and Sweeny refinery in Texas can process “a couple of hundred thousand barrels per day” of Venezuelan grades. “We’ve got refineries designed for the long term to process that crude,” Lashier said. However, he cautioned it would take “years, if not decades” of upstream investment to realize Venezuela’s full potential.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC): The company’s Garyville refinery in Louisiana is the largest heavy crude processor in the region. Analysts estimate it could capture 20% to 30% of any increased Venezuelan flows to the Gulf Coast.

The Catch

The economics remains challenging. Oil prices are hovering in a range of $57–$60 a barrel, low enough that investing major capital in a dicey political situation could be hard to justify. Rystad Energy estimates it would cost $53 billion to maintain Venezuela’s production of just under 1 million barrels per day over the next 15 years. Returning to the 3-million-barrel peak of the 1990s would cost $183 billion and at least a decade of work.

Rystad’s chief economist, Claudio Galimberti, told NPR that new projects in Venezuela need oil selling at about $80 per barrel to turn a profit. At $60 oil, “they won’t do it, because it makes no sense.”

There’s also the opportunity cost. Bloomberg estimates that Guyana projects break even near $35 a barrel, and Permian Basin wells cost between $37 and $48. Why spend billions in Venezuela when safer, cheaper barrels exist elsewhere?