Key in the Middle East have dropped to their weakest level against the Brent benchmark in two months, signaling oversupplied markets as output from both the Middle East and the Americas rises amid tepid demand.
The premium of Abu Dhabi’s flagship Murban grade over , the international benchmark, has narrowed in recent weeks and is now at its lowest level since early October, according to estimates by Bloomberg.
In Dubai, the discount of the benchmark against Brent had grown to its widest in seven weeks. The Brent-Dubai EFS (Exchange of Futures for Swaps) indicates the spread between the light sweet Brent crude in the Atlantic basin and the medium sour Dubai crude. The discount has widened in the past two months amid ample global supply.
The weaker Middle Eastern benchmarks signal more than enough crude from the Middle East, and elsewhere, available to cover the demand from Asia and other parts of the world.
Following weaker spot Middle East benchmarks, early this month Saudi Arabia slashed the prices for its crude bound for Asia in January to the lowest premium to benchmarks in five years, as the world’s largest crude exporter looks to preserve market share.
The Saudi price cut was widely expected by the market and refiners due to plentiful supply as OPEC+ raises output through December, and Saudi Arabia is raising production by the most as its share of the quotas is the biggest.
Due to what’s expected to be a year of oversupply, most investment banks expect Brent prices to average below $60 per barrel next year, with WTI prices even lower.
“The surplus in the oil market is set to grow in 2026, following OPEC+’s decision to unwind supply cuts at a quicker-than-expected pace,” Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, said last week.
“Non-OPEC supply is also expected to grow at a healthy clip despite this year’s price weakness.”
