When It Is In December And What To Expect

The Federal Reserve’s policy committee meets next on Dec. 9 and 10, and officials are expected to cut the central bank’s key interest rate to lower borrowing costs in an effort to stabilize the deteriorating job market.

What To Expect From The December Meeting

The Federal Open Market Committee will meet to consider whether to cut the federal funds rate from its current range of 3.75% to 4%. The Fed cut its interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point at each of the previous two meetings in an effort to prevent the recent job market slowdown from turning into a serious increase in unemployment.

As of Monday, financial markets were pricing in a 63% chance of a rate cut in the wake of data showing employers ramped up layoffs in October, and the public is getting more pessimistic about the job market, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.

However, a rate cut is not a done deal. Speaking at a press conference following the FOMC’s most recent meeting last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank was not guaranteed to cut rates, and noted the 12-member panel that votes on rate changes is divided about whether to cut rates to preserve the labor market, or keep them higher for longer to combat inflation.

Fed’s Data Blackout Complicates Its Decision

The government shutdown that began Oct. 1 makes the Fed’s decision more difficult because it has shuttered the government’s statistical agencies. Without critical information about inflation and the job market, Fed officials have less to go on when deciding whether inflation or the job market is the more pressing problem to solve.

Monthly reports for September and October from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other agencies have been delayed. The longer the shutdown drags on, the lower the chance the Fed will see any data at all before its December meeting. In the meantime, Fed officials have relied on data from private sources that is generally considered by economists less reliable than the “gold standard” reports from the BLS.

How Are Employment and Inflation?

The Fed faces challenges on both sides of its dual mandate.

Recent indicators show the job market is slowing down. Private employers laid more people off in October than in any October in more than 20 years, according to consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The most recent job market report from the BLS showed the U.S. economy added just 22,000 jobs in August, a significant slowdown from the six-digit job gains of last year.

Meanwhile, inflation is running hotter than the Fed’s goal of a 2% annual rate, and private price data suggests it’s still heading in the wrong direction.

Tariffs have pushed up prices and stoked uncertainty among business leaders that has slowed down hiring. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown has also slowed down job growth, and multiple companies have announced layoffs and hiring freezes attributed to the adoption of artificial intelligence.

How The Federal Reserve Works

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the body that sets the fed funds rate for the Federal Reserve System, the United States’ central bank. It holds eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, which are not open to the public. The Fed’s use of interest rates to influence the economy is called monetary policy.

The FOMC consists of 12 voting members: the seven board governors, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York president, and four other regional bank presidents who serve rotating one-year terms.

At each FOMC meeting, the committee members discuss economic and financial conditions and decide whether and how much to change the fed funds rate. The FOMC issues a public statement about its decision at 2 p.m. on Wednesday when the meeting concludes. The Fed chair, currently Jerome Powell, typically hosts a press conference afterwards to explain the decision.