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Economic Data Blackout Could Become Data Dark Age As Shutdown Drags On

1 hr 48 min ago

Missed economic reports by government statistical agencies have economists wondering what will happen if the data simply never arrives.

Experts have assumed that the government’s statistical agencies will play catch-up once the government reopens and publish belated reports for October, as they have done in past shutdowns. But with the current shutdown looking like it could be the longest in history, economists are starting to consider what will happen if agencies skip reporting October entirely and it becomes just a blank spot on future historical charts.

“As the shutdown drags on with no end in sight, risks are mounting for October’s report,” Sarah House and Nicole Cervi, economists at Wells Fargo Securities, wrote in a commentary. “At a minimum, collection rates stand to be lower with data gathering still suspended, and the risk is rising that the publication of the October CPI report could be skipped entirely.”

The problem is that the data, including for inflation and job creation, is based on massive surveys. With the Bureau of Labor Statistics closed, those surveys aren’t being carried out. (With the important exception of the Consumer Price Index report for September, which will be published Oct. 24.)

“If the shutdown continues, it’s possible that, for the first time in at least six decades, there will be a full month gap in data about jobs and unemployment in the U.S. economy,” Elise Gould, senior economist at the progressive Economic Policy Institute think tank, and Joe Fast, a research assistant, wrote in a commentary.

Read the full article here.

–Diccon Hyatt