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Key Takeaways
- Gold crossed the closely watched $4,000/oz level this week for the for first time ever, as investors pile into the precious metal amid a rush to safety.
- After breaking out from a narrow trading range in early September, the commodity’s price has continued to trend sharply higher with only several minor retracements since that time.
- The measured move technique projects a potential bullish price target of $4,160. Investors should watch critical support levels on gold’s chart around $3,700, $3,450 and $3,250.
Gold (XAUUSD) has continued shining brightly this week, crossing above the closely watched $4,000/oz level for the for first time ever.
Recent buying of the precious metal has been fueled by investor anxiety about the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, economic uncertainty, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month.
Spot gold prices, which were little changed at around $4,035 per ounce in recent trading, have surged 54% since the start of the year, with broader gains supported by central bank buying, a loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar and a range of geopolitical issues.
Below, we break down the technicals on gold’s chart and point out critical price levels worth watching out for.
Strong Uptrend Continues
After breaking out from a narrow trading range in early September, gold’s price has continued to trend sharply higher with only several minor retracements since that time.
The rally has coincided with the relative strength index remaining embedded in overbought territory to confirm bullish price momentum. However, the indicator recently climbed above 85, signaling extremely stretched conditions in the commodity that could lead to near-term profit-taking dips.
The average directional index indicator, which measures the strength of an asset’s trend, sits over 50, highlighting gold’s strong uptrend.
Let’s use technical analysis to forecast a potential bullish target worth watching and also identify critical support levels to monitor during retracements.
Bullish Measured Move Target
Investors can project a bullish target in the yellow metal by using the measured move technique, also known by chart watchers as the measuring principle.
When applying the study to gold’s chart, we calculate the commodity’s strong uptrend from February to April in dollars and add that amount to the recent trading range’s top trendline. This forecasts a target of $4,160 ($710 + $3,450), implying 3% upside from current trading levels.
We selected this earlier move as it also followed a narrow rangebound phase, providing clues as to how high gold’s price may go if a similar trend replicates.
Critical Support Levels to Monitor
An initial pullback could see the precious metal test the $3,700 level. This location may provide support near the top of a brief consolidation period on the chart in early to mid-September.
Bullion bulls’ failure to defend this critical level may trigger a fall to around $3,450. Investors could look to accumulate in this region near last month’s trading range breakout point, which may flip from an area of prior resistance to future support.
A more-significant drop could see gold revisit lower support near $3,250, currently just above the rising 200-day moving average. The commodity would likely attract buying interest at this level near multiple troughs on the chart between May and July that form the trading range’s lower trendline.
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As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities.
