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US crude exports are projected to hit a record high in April as Asian customers hunt for supplies to replace Middle Eastern oil lost because of the Iran war.
Oil research group Kpler estimates exports will jump by almost a third to 5.2mn barrels per day this month, up from 3.9mn b/d in March. Demand from Asian customers will rise by 82 per cent to 2.5mn b/d.
There are currently 68 empty tankers on their way to the US, according to Kpler, compared to 24 in the week before the war began on February 28. Last year the average was 27 tankers. Kpler bases its data on tanker bookings and expected arrivals.
“An armada of tankers are heading this way,” said Matt Smith, a Kpler analyst.
The export surge underscores the US’s growing role as a global swing supplier, but the competition from Asia could also push up American prices, deepening fears of a new bout of inflation triggered by President Donald Trump’s Iran war.
The conflict has left Asia particularly vulnerable to disruption because about 80 per cent of oil and petroleum products transiting the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 were destined for China and its neighbours.
A fragile two-week ceasefire announced on Tuesday between the US and Iran has brought hopes the vital waterway will be fully reopened for tankers after weeks of almost total closure.
But Iran said it was shutting the strait on Wednesday after Israeli attacks on Lebanon.
The weeks-long disruption to a waterway that handles a fifth of the world’s oil supply had increased US oil prices by more than 50 per cent before news of the ceasefire sparked a sharp sell-off.
Surging American exports have also pushed up US crude prices, with West Texas Intermediate hitting a four-year high above $110 a barrel earlier this week. Its price on Wednesday remained more than 40 per cent higher than before the war despite the truce with Iran.
Rising fuel costs pose a political problem for Trump, who retook office in 2025 with a promise to halve energy prices. A survey this week by the Pew Research Center found nearly 70 per cent of Americans were concerned about the price surge resulting from his war in Iran.
Trump’s approval ratings have dropped steeply, while US petrol prices have jumped above $4 per gallon for the first time in four years. The price of diesel, crucial for transport and farming, is nearing a record high of $5.81 a gallon.
The Trump administration has announced the release of more than 170mn barrels of oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and has relaxed pollution rules to keep fuel prices in check.
But analysts said the moves could backfire by making more cheap oil available to foreign buyers desperate for supplies.
“Given that the US administration is trying to keep US oil prices in check, all that is doing is making US crude relatively more attractive,” said Smith.
But although releases from the SPR will help replenish commercial inventories and contain more fuel price inflation, domestic production was not increasing fast enough to help, he said.
Releases from the strategic reserve are also limited to about 1mn-1.5mn b/d, according to Chris Wright, the US energy secretary. The US consumes about 20mn b/d and the war has shut 10mn-15mn b/d of supply from the Gulf.
Susan Bell, analyst at research group Rystad, said rising imports of crude from Venezuela — where the US recently deposed strongman leader Nicolás Maduro and took de facto control of its oil sector — were supporting more American exports.
“The trend has been higher imports from Venezuela, which we do believe is going to force that WTI barrel out [to exports],” she said.
Many US refineries are set up to handle heavier grades of oil from countries such as Venezuela and Canada, meaning more output of lighter domestic shale oil can be exported.
Rising US fuel prices have already prompted calls for a ban on oil exports from some politicians. Brad Sherman, a Democratic Congress member from California, said he would soon introduce the No US Oil Exports During Iran War Act that “puts American consumers first by ensuring energy resources are used to stabilise prices at home”.
The Trump administration has so far ruled out an export ban, which analysts say would trap some petroleum products in the US and prompt refiners to cut production. But some have cautioned that the White House could change its mind if the Middle East disruptions caused by the war continue to push up fuel costs as November’s midterm elections near.
“We believe Administration officials appreciate the possible unintended consequences of export controls for the refining sector. But a bad idea rejected at $4/gal might get a second look at $6/gal,” said Kevin Book, analyst at ClearView Energy Partners.
