The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Monday closed up +0.71%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.39%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +1.13%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) rose +0.69%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) rose +1.14%.
Stocks during the morning traded lower on an overnight spike in oil prices above $100 per barrel, but were then able to recover after President Trump told CBS News in a phone interview that “I think the war is very complete, pretty much” and that the military operation is “very far” ahead of its 4-5 week timeframe.
Oil prices on Monday initially spiked above $100 per barrel after Israel on Saturday bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots. In addition, Saudi Arabia became the latest Middle East oil producer to cut production as its local storage facilities near capacity. However, oil prices fell back later in the day after G-7 finance ministers pledged to release strategic oil reserves if necessary and after President Trump seemed to indicate that the Iran war might soon end.
In any case, there seems to be little chance that Iran will surrender after Iran’s Assembly of Experts over the weekend appointed hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new supreme leader, the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran’s new leader has close ties to Iran’s powerful and entrenched Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). President Trump said he is “not happy” with the choice of the new leader.
Stocks on Monday saw some ongoing worries about the US economy after last Friday’s weak economic news that US Feb payrolls fell by -92,000 and US Jan retail sales fell by -0.2% m/m.
Q4 earnings season is nearly over, with more than 95% of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results. Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 74% of the 492 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.
The markets are discounting a 4% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.
Overseas stock markets fell on Monday amid the early spike in oil prices. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.61%. China’s Shanghai Composite on Monday closed down -0.7%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed sharply lower by -5.2%.
Interest Rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Monday rose by +5 ticks, reversing early losses. The 10-year T-note yield fell -3.3 bp to 4.105%. T-note prices recovered morning losses sparked by the early spike in oil prices, which was inflationary and hawkish for Fed policy. In a bullish factor for T-note prices, the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate on Monday fell -1.4 bp to 2.338%.
European government bond yields were mixed. The 10-year German bund yield fell -0.1 bp to 2.859%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +2.0 bp to 4.647%.
Swaps are discounting an 8% chance of a -25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven technology stocks all closed in positive territory, led by gains of more than +2% in Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOGL).
Oil stocks closed the day mixed after the gyrations in oil prices. Valero Energy (VLO) closed the day down more than -3%, and Marathon Oil (MPC) closed the day down more than -2%. Exxon (XOM) fell -0.51%, and Chevron (CVX) fell -0.26%.
Airline stocks rallied on short covering after President Trump indicated that the Iran war might soon end. United Airlines Holdings (UAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), and American Airlines Group (AAL) all rose more than +2%.
Defense stocks mostly fell after Mr. Trump indicated that the Iran war might end soon. Northrop Grumman (NOC), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and AeroVironment (AVAV) all fell more than -1%.
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) closed +40.79% higher after Novo confirmed it will sell Wegovy and Ozempic on the Hims & Hers platform.
Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) rallied more than +6% after Politico reported an antitrust settlement with the US Department of Justice under which the company will pay $200 million in damages.
Earnings Reports(3/9/2026)
Casey’s General Stores Inc (CASY), Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (HPE), Vail Resorts Inc (MTN).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
