Here’s How Much Target Stock Is Expected to Move After Earnings

Target is slated to post fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday morning, with traders anticipating a big move in the retailer’s stock following the results.

Current options pricing suggests traders expect Target (TGT) stock could move up to 8% in either direction by the end of the week. A move of that size from Friday’s close could lift it to $123 or drag it back down to $104, giving up some of its recent gains. Target stock has rallied more than 16% since the year began, amid a broader rotation in favor of consumer-focused stocks, though it’s still down about 8% from a year ago as sales slumped.

The retailer is widely expected to report a year-over-year decline in sales and profits for the fourth quarter, but analysts said more attention will likely be on Target’s outlook under new CEO Michael Fiddelke, who took over at the start of the month.

UBS analysts recently said they expect focus to be on Target’s forward-looking comments, with its CEO transition seen as an opportunity for Target to undertake a “fundamental reshape of many of its key processes, assets, and culture.” That could also mean higher spending this year on store remodels, along with improvements to Target’s supply chain and e-commerce capabilities, they said.

Target’s fourth-quarter revenue is projected to come in at $30.45 billion, down slightly year-over-year, per analyst estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. Adjusted earnings per share are forecast at $2.15, down from $2.41 a year ago. Comparable store sales are seen declining 2.4%.

Amid uncertainty about the company’s turnaround and leadership transition, few analysts on the Street are recommending buying the shares. Of the eight analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha, six have maintained neutral ratings, and one advises selling. Only one recommends buying the stock. Their mean target around $97 would suggest a roughly 15% decline from Friday’s close.