- U.S./Israel-Iran tensions, U.S. jobs report, Broadcom earnings will be in focus in the week ahead.
- Costco is poised for a potential breakout with its earnings report on Thursday.
- Broadcom faces a high-stakes test as its own results approach on Wednesday.
U.S. stocks ended lower on Friday after the latest producer price index report came in much hotter than expected, adding sticky inflation to a list of concerns that has caused market turbulence this month.
Source: Investing.com
All three major indexes posted steep weekly declines, with the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average logging its biggest weekly drop since mid-November. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite finished in the red for February amid growing fears about the impact of artificial intelligence on specific industries and the overall economy.
The coming week will revolve around the response to the joint U.S.-Israel attack on Iran by the stock market, as well as commodities, particularly oil.
Beyond geopolitical worries, investors will monitor a busy slate of data releases, with the latest jobs report and retail sales figures due Friday. The ISM manufacturing and services PMIs will also be closely watched.
Source: Investing.com
Elsewhere, major semiconductor player is among the remaining reports that will close out the fourth-quarter earnings season. Aside from Broadcom’s results, earnings are expected from retailers , Target, and Best Buy.
Apple’s product event on Wednesday will also draw close attention.
Regardless of which direction the market goes, below I highlight one stock likely to be in demand and another which could see fresh downside. Remember though, my timeframe is just for the week ahead, Monday, March 2 – March 6.
Stock to Buy: Costco
Defensive retail giant Costco heads into its earnings release with solid momentum as it benefits from strong membership-driven traffic, value-oriented pricing, and broad consumer appeal. According to the options market, traders are pricing in a swing of +/-4.4% in either direction for COST stock following the print.
Recent sales trends, including solid comparable sales growth across regions and e-commerce gains, support expectations for another robust quarter. Analyst sentiment has been notably positive heading into the print, with profit estimates revised upward 18 times, compared to seven downward revisions, according to InvestingPro.
Source: InvestingPro
Consensus estimates call for Costco to earn $4.55 per share, representing a 13.2% increase from last year’s EPS of $4.02. Furthermore, revenue is forecast to climb 8.6% year-over-year to $69.2 billion.
The report is expected to highlight not just traffic growth but also successful strategic expansions, both domestically and internationally.
Known for its wide array of high-demand products—from groceries and household essentials to electronics and apparel—Costco has managed to carve out a niche for itself by catering to value-conscious consumers.
Source: Investing.com
Technically, Costco has been in a healthy uptrend, with pullbacks finding buyers and the stock holding above key moving averages. The current RSI of 61 suggests bullish momentum, but not yet overbought territory.
A clean beat and constructive guidance could be the catalyst for another leg higher, making COST a strong buy candidate for investors looking for a quality, defensive growth name in a still‑uncertain macro environment.
Trade Setup:
- Entry: Around current levels (~$1,010)
- Exit Target: $1,070 (gain ~6%)
- Stop-Loss: $970 (risk ~3.5%)
Stock To Sell: Broadcom
Broadcom, by contrast, faces a much trickier setup into its earnings report, despite expectations for better‑than‑expected results on both the top and bottom lines. High expectations are already baked in, with shares trading at elevated multiples amid broader semiconductor sector volatility.
The company’s fiscal Q1 update is scheduled to come out on Wednesday at 4:15PM ET. Market participants expect a sizable swing in AVGO shares following the print, with options markets pricing in a potential $28 move, or roughly +/-9%, in either direction post-earnings.
Source: InvestingPro
Broadcom is seen earning $2.02 per share, representing a 26% increase from the prior year. Meanwhile, revenue is forecast to jump 28% year-over-year to $19.2 billion, fueled by robust AI demand.
However, despite the headline growth, the stock faces risks of a post-earnings pullback, even if results meet or exceed expectations. Any perceived shortfall in margins, guidance commentary on AI demand sustainability, or signs of slower ramp-up could trigger disappointment.
The “sell the news” dynamic has played out in similar high‑profile AI and semiconductor names following blowout reports. Broadcom now sits in that same camp.
Source: Investing.com
Despite a forecast for another blockbuster quarter, sentiment is cautious. After peaking at $414.61 in December, AVGO has tumbled nearly 23% from its 52-week high and is now testing support near $319.
With management’s guidance under scrutiny, any earnings disappointment to account for a more competitive, AI‑driven landscape could accelerate the pullback.
Trade Setup:
- Entry: Around current levels ($319-$320)
- Exit Target: $300 (gain ~6%)
- Stop-Loss: $335 (risk ~4.7%)
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Disclosure: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research.
At the time of writing, I am long on the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 via the SPDR® S&P 500 ETF, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF. I am also long on the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF. I regularly rebalance my portfolio of individual stocks and ETFs based on ongoing risk assessment of both the macroeconomic environment and companies’ financials.
The views discussed in this article are solely the opinion of the author and should not be taken as investment advice.
Follow Jesse Cohen on X/Twitter @JesseCohenInv for more stock market analysis and insight.
