Just a few minutes back, while I was evaluating possibilities of a military strike by the U.S. on Iran, if it really occurs on Saturday as expected after repeated threats by President Trump after Oman’s meeting between the diplomats from the U.S. and Iran, it remains inconclusive, leading to a final threat from President Trump.
But suddenly, a shift in Trump’s stance, as he said on Friday, the maximum he would give Iran to make a deal is 10-15 days, while Iran’s foreign minister says a draft nuclear agreement could be ready in the next few days.
I tried to dig more on the possible reason behind this shit in Trump’s softness as the experienced a sharp jolting move at 10.05 GMT by a sudden jolt in selling and buying when the gold futures experienced a sharp dip after testing the day’s high at $5,084.30 while this joling move to test the day’s low at $008.20 while the recovery was equally sharp which pushed the futures back to close that hourly candle at $5,062.63 as this move was clearly visible in 1-Hr. The chart caught my attention to dig more.
I found that the reason behind this shift in President Trump’s policy is possibly the Supreme Court’s ruling against Trump’s sweeping global tariffs.
In a 6-3 decision, the court holds that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) – a 1977 statute that grants the president authority to regulate or prohibit certain international transactions during a national emergency – does not authorize the president to impose the tariffs.
Democratic senator Elizabeth Warren said that no decision can “undo the massive damage that the Trump tariffs have done to small businesses, to American supply chains, and especially to American families forced to pay higher prices on everything from groceries to housing”.
However, gold futures are trying to sustain a technical bounce from the significant support at the 100 EMA ($5,006.68) in an hourly chart, and trying to hold the immediate support at $5,069.66, but still below the immediate resistance at $5,112.16, where a breakout could push the futures inside the selling zone above $5,145.10 in a 1-Hr. chart, as the current moves are bearish engulfing at the current level. I anticipate that this week’s closing level will play a decisive role in deciding the further directional moves by the gold futures next week, as the currently prevailing skepticism over the potential of the reactionary move by President Trump will gain more visibility this weekend-end.
Undoubtedly, vanishing trade tariffs will be a milestone for reverting the global trade on the right track, along with a steep decline in financial terror, which will likely fade the buying spree that started in November 2025 when Trump won the Presidential elections, and accelerated soon after he took office on Jan.20, 2025.
Now, the global central banks will remain focused on controlling inflationary pressure instead of adding more and more gold to their reserve, and their monetary policy will restart around stopping further interest rate cuts.
I anticipate that the prevailing skepticism over potential refunds by the White House back to tariff-hit entities, which is $175 billion, might lead to a surge in trade deficit, which could result in selling sprees to continue until the refund factor gets clarity.
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Disclaimer: Readers are requested to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
