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Clients today feel more uncertain than ever — and for good reason. At the macro level, what’s driving this uncertainty can be summarized by a simple concept: Expectation vs reality.
In other words, it’s common for there to be a mismatch between what we think will happen and what actually happens.
This creates a disorienting feedback loop that changes what people think assets are worth so rapidly that investors struggle to keep up. It’s like planning your weekly grocery budget assuming milk costs $3 per gallon, only to find it’s $3.50 when you arrive at the store and $3.25 by the time you reach the cash register.
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With trade dynamics, AI developments and policy shifts constantly changing the perceived value of investments, the speed of change has become the real problem.
The challenge for advisers lies in recognizing that this uncertainty stems from more than just change itself. Investors are nervous because they don’t comfortably understand what something is worth or trust that its worth will remain consistent.
This drives a “take the money and run” mentality, where clients prefer the certainty of today’s value over tomorrow’s uncertainty.
What clients truly need is an informed perspective and a plan that already accounts for future uncertainty.
From predictions to wisdom
In my view, the adviser’s role is evolving away from forecasting toward being a steady, informed guide through complex times. This requires advisers to understand macro forces shaping the environment and explain to clients how their existing plans already account for these external forces.
Wisdom comes from helping clients see that their adviser is informed and has thoughtfully prepared for uncertainty, rather than reacting to every headline.
At AE Wealth Management, we’ve developed the PAGE framework to organize the major forces shaping today’s environment and help advisers lead more effective client conversations. The framework represents four structural forces influencing markets, businesses and household finances:
P – policy divergence
A – AI vs economic impact
G – global fragmentation
E – economic disparity
These forces create ongoing uncertainty, but understanding them allows advisers to help position clients for whatever develops next.
Policy divergence: When rules change rapidly
Governments worldwide are moving in different directions on trade, regulation, interest rates and fiscal policy. Markets constantly reprice expectations based on new policy developments, creating sudden volatility when those expectations shift.
This divergence impacts inflation, interest rates, business growth and investment risk. Rather than reacting to every policy headline, well-constructed financial plans account for policy uncertainty over time through appropriate diversification and risk management.
Advisers who understand policy dynamics can help clients see beyond the headlines to focus on long-term positioning. The goal involves building portfolios resilient enough to handle various policy outcomes rather than betting on specific directions.
AI vs economic impact: Innovation meets reality
Massive excitement surrounds AI’s growth potential, but real-world factors will influence actual outcomes.
For example, energy represents a key factor in AI’s ability to generate revenues necessary to justify current stock prices. And questions about power supply for data centers and infrastructure constraints will affect how quickly AI can deliver on its promises.
Markets often price in big expectations, while reality unfolds more slowly or differently than anticipated. Rather than trying to predict whether we have enough power supply for all the AI projects companies have signed up for, advisers can help clients understand how innovation fits into long-term strategies with appropriate risk management.
The key lies in recognizing that transformative technologies often take longer to deliver promised benefits than initial enthusiasm suggests. Depending on how energy and infrastructure challenges work out over the next 12 to 18 months, markets could respond positively or negatively.
Patient capital positioned for long-term trends tends to outperform reactive approaches based on short-term excitement.
Global fragmentation: A more divided world
Countries are becoming increasingly protectionist as trade relationships shift and geopolitical tensions affect supply chains and markets. This fragmentation impacts corporate profits, inflation and market stability while increasing uncertainty around global growth.
Traditional assumptions about global integration and free trade no longer hold as reliably as they once did. Supply chains are reorganizing around security considerations rather than pure efficiency, creating new cost structures and investment opportunities.
Well-constructed portfolios anticipate these global shifts through geographic diversification and exposure to companies positioned for a more fragmented world rather than chasing short-term reactions to geopolitical events.
Economic disparity: The K-shaped economy
Different segments of the economy grow at vastly different rates, with some industries and households thriving while others struggle. This can create uneven market performance and influences consumer behavior, employment patterns and investment returns.
Traditional models assuming smooth, uniform growth across the economy no longer reflect reality. Financial plans must account for this uneven landscape rather than expecting consistent outcomes across all sectors and demographics.
Building trust through informed conversations
There are two ways to drive revenue for financial advisers: 1) continue to retain the clients you have today to serve them longer and 2) encourage new families to do business with you. The PAGE framework helps advisers work towards accomplishing both objectives:
Stronger client retention can develop when advisers who understand these four macro conversations can have informed discussions with current clients. They retain families for longer and potentially capture higher wallet share over time because they’re seen as well-informed and authoritative advisers.
Clients don’t necessarily need advisers to provide directional market calls; they want advisers who can articulate that their plan already accounts for uncertainty and demonstrate that preparation within their plan.
Smarter prospect conversations can emerge when advisers can ask thoughtful questions, such as “How is your investment and financial plan prepared to deal with these four macro themes this year?”
The goal is for prospects to respond with statements like “I’m not sure” or “I don’t know.”
This opens the door for meaningful dialogue about comprehensive financial planning and provides a natural wedge for advisers to explain their approach.
Confidence over constant change
Change will continue accelerating, and uncertainty remains part of the investment environment rather than something to eliminate. Advisers who understand and communicate macro forces become indispensable partners for families navigating an increasingly complex world.
PAGE represents more than just a framework for understanding current conditions. It helps provide a foundation for building confidence through knowledge rather than predictions.
Clients can gain clarity not from knowing what will happen next, but from understanding how their plans are designed to handle whatever develops.
In our faster, more complex world, the ability to provide this perspective becomes the ultimate differentiator for successful advisory practices.
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