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Inflation’s always been a hot topic for economists. But since June 2022, when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit its highest level in 40 years (9.1%!) and the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates to their highest level in over 20 years, more folks have become interested in the data.
This is because inflation is a measure of our purchasing power. How much things cost and how quickly prices are rising directly impacts not only how far a dollar will stretch for us, but also how far it will go for the companies that we invest in. And very few things make the stock market grumpier than a disappointing profit margin.
That’s why the January CPI report, due out ahead of this Friday’s open, is one of the most-anticipated events on this week’s economic calendar.
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What time is the CPI?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January CPI report at 8:30 am Eastern Standard Time on Friday, February 13.
The data was initially slated for release the morning of Wednesday, February 11, but was delayed due to the short-lived government shutdown.
What is CPI?
“CPI is a measure of the average price of that basket of goods and services over time,” writes Kiplinger contributor Coryanne Hicks. “The specific goods and services within the CPI basket are based on information around 24,000 families and individuals give the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on what they buy.”
Since inflation peaked nearly four years ago, the CPI and core CPI — which excludes volatile food and energy prices — have declined. In December, headline inflation was up 2.7% year over year and core inflation was 2.6% higher.
“Energy prices rose a tad because of a jump in natural gas service,” writes David Payne, staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, in the Kiplinger Inflation Outlook. “This was mostly offset by a decline in gasoline prices.”
While egg prices dropped, Payne notes that beef prices and shelter and medical service costs saw their biggest increases in five months.
And inflation remains too high for the Federal Reserve. So while the Fed has cut interest rates by 1.75 percentage points this cycle in response to a cooling labor market, it’s currently expected to keep rates unchanged at its next two meetings, just as it did in January, to see how recent rate cuts are impacting inflation and employment.
One factor the Fed continues to monitor is President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. While they’ve raised prices in some durable goods, including electronics and furniture, their broader impact has been less than many initially feared.
So what does this mean for the January CPI report? Here, we look at some of what economists, strategists and other experts around Wall Street have to say about the results and what they could mean for the Fed and investors going forward.
What to expect from the January CPI report?
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“Forecasts suggest the critical core CPI measure could ease to around 2.5%, marking a near five-year low. If inflation comes in line with — or ideally below — expectations, the strength of the labour market may become secondary. A softer inflation print would keep rate cuts firmly priced in and could.” – Daniela Hathorn, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com
“We highlight five key component-level trends we expect to see in the report. First, we expect upward pressure from seasonal distortions on the communications and private transportation categories. Second, we expect a modest boost from start of the year price resets in categories like medical care commodities. Third, we expect upward pressure from tariffs on categories that are particularly exposed. Fourth, we expect firm travel services inflation, reflecting signals from alternative price data. And fifth, we forecast softer autos inflation, reflecting a 1.5% decline in used car prices, unchanged new car prices, and a moderate increase in the car insurance category.” – Goldman Sachs economists
“I’m expecting Friday’s CPI to be the fourth consecutive month of cooler CPI data. A 2.5% print would put us right back where we were pre-COVID — which begs the question: why are interest rates still this high? To me, the policy looks way too restrictive for the current reality. We should see the Fed start to walk this back with 2 or 3 cuts later this year.” – Robert Edwards, Chief Investment Officer at Edwards Asset Management
“We expect a somewhat cleaner read on price growth from the January CPI report as the ripple effects from last fall’s record-long government shutdown fade. We expect the core index to increase 0.33% in January compared to an average increase of 0.22% the prior 12 months … [which] will reflect some delayed pass-through of tariff costs to consumers as suppliers renegotiate contracts, businesses restock inventory and companies test pricing power. We look for core goods prices to rise 0.33%. Used vehicles should underpin the pickup, but we also look for broad strength outside vehicles that would leave the core goods index up 1.4% year-over-year.” – Sarah House, Senior Economist at Wells Fargo
“We expect January CPI estimates to look elevated after a string of subdued readings. While we found no statistical evidence of residual seasonality in the data, 10 out of the past 11 January CPI estimates have surprised inflation markets to the upside. For this year’s report, we forecast headline CPI to have increased 0.29% m/m (2.5% y/y), and core CPI by 0.39% m/m (2.6% y/y) buoyed by a combination of incremental tariff pass-through and beginning-of-year price resets.” – Pooja Sriram, Economist at Barclays
