Today’s Release Could Be the ‘Super Bowl of Jobs Reports’

Revisions Could Renew Labor Market Optimism–Or Crush It

FROM 5 minutes ago

The report is also highly anticipated because of annual revisions to the backward-looking data. 

The revisions are part of the BLS’s routine process, which updates its job market reports several times as it receives more comprehensive information on hiring and firing. 

The bureau’s initial monthly reports come out in the early days of the following month and are based on surveys of 161,000 businesses.

Those initial reports are revised twice in subsequent months as businesses turn in surveys late. Then, every year, the bureau revises the data yet again to incorporate information from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which covers 95% of all workers. That’s the major revision that will show up in today’s report for data from Apr 2024 to March 2025.

Another revision will adjust data from April 2025 onward to accommodate the BLS’s updated firm Birth-Death model. 

“If the downward revisions are modest and concentrated in the second half of 2024, they should be less concerning for the Fed because policymakers are more focused on the recent outlook,” wrote Bank of America analysts.

Today’s Jobs Data Was Delayed By The Partial Shutdown

FROM 29 minutes ago

Once again, a government shutdown delayed this key jobs report.

Today’s report was originally scheduled to be released last Friday. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics delayed the release of data after the government briefly shut down at the end of January. 

This minor delay comes just as the Bureau of Labor Statistics was returning to its regular cadence after the 43-day shutdown in the fall, which halted all federal data collection and releases. During that time, business leaders, investors and policy makers were flying blind with little economic data to guide their decisions.

The gap in the government data has made third-party reports garner more attention. For example, consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas found that companies cut 108,000 jobs in January, the most for any January since 2009.

What Happened in December’s Jobs Report?

FROM 44 minutes ago

U.S. employers added 50,000 jobs in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said last month. The relatively slow job growth was slightly below the downwardly revised 56,000 jobs added in November and below the 73,000 jobs forecasters had expected.

The unemployment rate fell for the first time since June, halting its recent upward trend. It edged down to 4.4% in December from a downwardly revised 4.5% in November.

“Today’s messy report helps level-set expectations for 2026 for a low-hire, low-fire labor market that is still waiting for clearer signs of renewed momentum,” Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com, wrote in a commentary at the time.

-Diccon Hyatt

What Are Fed Officials Looking For In Today’s Data?

FROM 52 minutes ago

Officials at the Federal Reserve are increasingly concerned about a possible surge in unemployment. Among the recent red flags about the job market: employers had fewer openings in December than at any time since 2020. 

Economists look at job openings as a leading indicator of future job growth. For the Fed, it’s especially important because keeping employment high is one of the central bank’s two mandates from Congress. The other is to keep inflation under control.

Fed officials have been divided about whether to cut the central bank’s benchmark interest rate to help the job market or keep it higher for longer to fight inflation, which remains above the Fed’s target. The Fed chose to hold rates flat at its January meeting and is expected to do so again at its March meeting. Before that, the Fed cut the rate by a quarter point at each of its three previous meetings.

To read more about Fed officials’ recent thoughts on the job market, click here.

-Diccon Hyatt

What Do Economists Expect From Today’s Report?

FROM 1 hour ago

Analysts at Bank of America Global Research said today may be the “Super Bowl of jobs reports” because so much attention is being paid to the numbers. 

Forecasters expect U.S. employers likely added 55,000 jobs last month, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. That would compare with the 50,000 jobs added in December.

As in recent months, job gains are expected to be concentrated in health care, with careers in other fields becoming harder to find as employers remain in a no-hiring mindset. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.4%, a relatively low level by historical standards.

To read more about economists’ predictions, click here.

-Diccon Hyatt

What Is In A Typical Jobs Report?

FROM 1 hour ago

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the Employment Situation Summary every month.

The report estimates how many jobs were added across the country during the month, as well as the average number of hours employees worked weekly and their average hourly earnings. This data is generated from household and employer surveys.

The government’s jobs report is considered the gold standard among economists for measuring the health of the labor market and, in turn, the broader U.S. economy.

To learn more about the monthly report, click here.