Super Bowl Sunday’s Big Winners? The Seattle Seahawks—and Prediction Markets

The stakes were high this Sunday—for both football fans glued to the Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl and traders watching the game playing out on prediction markets.

Prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi did not run Super Bowl ads—the NFL put them on the no-fly list alongside tobacco and firearms companies—but they still saw a surge in activity. Aside from the headline “Will the Seattle Seahawks or the New England Patriots win the Super Bowl” trade, event contracts ran the gamut: There was trading on how many people would tune in, which celebrities would attend, which musical acts would perform during the halftime show, and more.

Kalshi saw a surge in total trading volume to $871 million, topping its prior daily record of $543 million, according to Bank of America analysts. Its app was among the most sought-out on app stores on Sunday, according to BofA, outpacing even DraftKings (DKNG).

The bank estimated that some 75% of Kalshi’s volumes were on the game or game-related markets—and that prediction markets’ Super Bowl betting came to as much as 20% of that of regulated sports books. The American Gaming Association estimated that some $1.76 billion would be wagered legally on Super Bowl LX.

The surge in prediction markets activity over Super Bowl weekend promises continued debate over whether those platforms peddle hedging tools for the masses, or another way to gamble. One Polymarket user, who placed a series of winning bets on the Seahawks, appears to have made over $1.2 million.

Another user who created their account just a day before the Super Bowl bet and won on every celebrity appearance and non-appearance during Bad Bunny’s halftime performance. The user made almost $5,000 betting that Lady Gaga would perform, and another $3,000 that Travis Scott would not.

Not everyone was a winner—there was at least one trader who lost $100,000—but signs of improbable luck on prediction markets has raised fears about people using misappropriated information for self-gain.

And one Polymarket event contract regarding performances at the game is being disputed. While rapper Cardi B danced alongside Jessica Alba and Pedro Pascal at Bad Bunny’s Casita stage, some are arguing that a cameo isn’t necessarily a “performance.” Others argued that she performed in the sense that she was on the field and not in the audience. The outcome of that contract will be decided in two days.