What If A Housing Shortage Isn’t The Reason Homes Are So Expensive?

A new analysis from researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco challenges the common assumption that homes have gotten more expensive because too few have been built.

The analysis published this week, showed that cities across the country have built housing faster than their populations have grown and that home prices tend to rise alongside income. Indeed, the housing supply grew faster than the population even in expensive markets like San Francisco. In other words, rising incomes, not a shortage of housing, could be fueling the soaring cost of houses.

The research by a team led by Schulyer Louie, a doctoral student at the University of California Irvine, sheds new light on the causes of the housing affordability crisis and has implications for how policymakers should address it. With rent and home-ownership costs soaring relative to typical incomes, politicians from both major parties are looking for ways to bring those costs down. But the problem may have less to do with too few homes being built and more to do with high-income earners bidding prices out of reach of everyone else.

“House price growth may simply reflect growth in housing demand, driven in part by growth in average income, such that questions of housing affordability may primarily be about differences in income growth at the top of the distribution relative to the middle,” the researchers wrote.

So far, the efforts have focused on increasing the supply of housing with simple market dynamics in mind: a higher supply, relative to demand, should bring costs down. Today’s high housing costs are partly the result of a restriction in supply. Groups like the National Association of Realtors and other housing advocates contend that restrictive local zoning laws, opposition to new developments, and other factors have, over the last few decades, caused a massive housing shortage.

Ending that shortage could improve housing affordability, the logic goes. For example, the Housing for the 21st Century Act, introduced last year and advancing through Congress with bipartisan support, aims to reduce red tape in home construction and to fund housing programs to increase supply.

But if Louie is correct, those solutions could be off the mark.

“Much of the intense interest in addressing the housing affordability crisis has focused on limitations to the housing supply,” Louie wrote. “We argue that differences in the type of underlying labor market growth and subsequent implications for housing demand may offer a better explanation for important housing market dynamics. This suggests that the housing affordability crisis may be best addressed by understanding changes to the labor market, especially the relative distribution of economic growth across income levels and jobs in different areas.”