:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/GettyImages-2253536135-9c70797a61b24d36a057eddc8b621ec7.jpg "Chipotle Stock Could Benefit from the Company’s ‘Conservative’ 2026 Targets")
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Key Takeaways
- Chipotle told investors to expect flat same-store sales in 2026. That’s not what they’d likely prefer, but it’s better than the retreat the company managed last year.
- Some analysts say the company, which has seen its shares fall over the past 12 months, is setting itself up to exceed expectations in 2026.
Chipotle’s burrito is undoubtedly bruised.
Sales at the chain rose last year, but most of that came from new store openings. Transactions fell, offsetting a higher average check; all told, same-store sales finished 2025 in the red. This has been bad news for the onetime highflying stock, which has lost about a third of its value over the past 12 months.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) shares aren’t getting hit too hard today, the first session after it released its latest quarterly results. The stock was recently down a bit less than 1% as broader markets were mixed. (Read Investopedia’s full coverage of today’s trading here.)
Why This Matters to Investors
Some Chipotle watchers are applauding what they see as appropriate conservatism in management’s outlook for 2026. That, they suggest, could mean the company is essentially underpromising so it can overdeliver, offering investors a pleasant surprise if they come along for the ride.
Is that a mark of confidence, or concern? It’s hard to say. The company said it expects 2026 same-store sales to come in flat. It also said it’s sticking with previously announced plans to open as many as 370 new restaurants, most of them in the U.S.
“It’s still very early in the year, and consumer trends have been really tough to predict,” CFO Adam Rymer said on a conference call late Tuesday, a transcript of which was provided by AlphaSense. “We wanted to be conservative in our full-year guide to account for this.”
The mood of Wall Street analysts might be described as cautiously optimistic. Their roughly $47 mean price target, as tracked by Visible Alpha, points to roughly 20% upside from Monday’s close—a substantial climb, though the stock was there as recently as July.
Chipotle “offers a favorable setup and catalyst path in 2026,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote after the results, saying the company “took an appropriately conservative approach to its guide.” That, they say, could build credibility for the management team with investors.
Bank of America, which is more bullish than the Street at large, thinks factors including higher in-store efficiency, marketing campaigns and successful limited-time offers can drive the stock upward. “We are optimistic Chipotle has set a beatable bar,” they wrote.
