The Fed Is Unlikely to Make Moves Next Week, But There Could Still Be Drama

The Federal Reserve is all but certain to keep its key interest rate steady at its next meeting on Wednesday, leaving a few open questions, including how far Chair Jerome Powell will go to defend the central bank’s independence from the White House.

Financial markets widely expect the Federal Open Market Committee to put a lid on its recent string of rate cuts and hold the fed funds rate steady at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Traders on Friday were pricing in a 97% chance Fed will leave rates unchanged, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.

After cutting the rate by a quarter point for a third time in a row in December, Most officials have shown little appetite for further reducing the key rate, which influences borrowing costs on all kinds of loans.

Fed officials are expected to keep rates flat for at least a few months to see how the economy responds to the rate cuts so far, as the Fed pursues its dual mandate from Congress to keep inflation at 2% and employment high.

Inflation has stayed higher than the Fed’s target since 2021, while the job market has been hit by a hiring slowdown. Fed officials are in something of a dilemma, though recent signs suggest both problems are improving. To make matters more complicated, recent data about inflation and the job market have been skewed by the government shutdown in October and November.

Among the FOMC’s 12 members, only Governor Stephen Miran has advocated for the kind of steep rate cuts the president has demanded.

“We expect the FOMC to keep rates unchanged at the January meeting, with one dissent from Governor Miran in favor of a cut,” economists at Nomura led by Aichi Amemiya, wrote in a commentary. “Powell is likely to reiterate that there is a higher bar to easing following last year’s insurance cuts.” 

If there is any drama at the meeting, it could occur at the post-announcement press conference. Powell will likely field questions about Trump’s increased public pressure and how he will respond.

Trump has repeatedly said the Fed should sharply lower interest rates, and the administration has recently taken legal actions against Powell and Fed Governor Lisa Cook. While the White House they legal actions are not politically motivated, Powell denounced the White House’s actions as “intimidation” aimed at pressuring the Fed to sharply lower rates as Trump has demanded.

Economists and other experts say the central bank’s ability to control inflation hinges on the public perception that it sets interest rates based on economic factors, not politics, and that would be undermined if the president could strong-arm the Fed’s leadership.

Powell has usually brushed aside questions with any whiff of politics, but broke with precedent earlier this month when he released a video message condemning the Trump administration’s Department of Justice investigation into the Fed. However, economists don’t expect him to expand on his comments after the Fed meeting.

“The Fed will pause rate cuts at this meeting and establish a higher bar for future rate cuts as the jobless rate may be stabilizing and underlying inflation momentum is not far from target again,” Andrew Grantham, an economist at CIBC, wrote in a commentary. “Powell will be peppered with questions about Fed independence, but he will likely duck most of them.”