Gold’s Best Week Since March 2020: Why $5,000 Is Just the Start

Gold just had its best week since the pandemic panic of March 2020. And the rally might only be getting started.

The yellow metal blasted through $4,950 per ounce on Friday, hitting an intraday record of $4,966.93 and extending a surge that has seen prices climb more than 11% in January alone. For context, gold gained 64% in all of 2025—the best annual performance since 1979.

The current momentum makes that rally look like a warmup act.

Goldman Sachs threw fuel on the fire this week, raising its year-end gold forecast to $5,400 per ounce from $4,900. The bank’s commodities team, led by Daan Struyven and Lina Thomas, cited a critical shift: private investors who bought gold as a hedge against macro policy risks are refusing to sell. Unlike previous hedges tied to specific events like elections, these positions are “stickier” because the underlying concerns—fiscal sustainability, dollar credibility, geopolitical chaos—aren’t going away anytime soon.

“We see the risks to our upgraded gold price forecast as significantly skewed to the upside,” Goldman wrote in a note dated January 21. That’s Wall Street-speak for “this thing could run a lot further.”

What’s Driving the Surge

Three forces are converging to push gold into uncharted territory.

• The dollar is bleeding out. The has dropped 8.8% since the end of 2024, making gold cheaper for international buyers and undermining confidence in the world’s reserve currency. President Trump’s Greenland tariff threats—and the subsequent backtracking—highlighted just how quickly U.S. trade policy can swing. European leaders aren’t exactly breathing easy. Some analysts have raised the prospect of Europe “weaponizing” its substantial U.S. asset holdings, a scenario that would send gold even higher.
• Central banks can’t stop buying. Emerging market central banks have purchased a net 297 tonnes of gold through November 2025, according to the World Gold Council. Poland alone added 95 tonnes. Goldman expects central bank buying to average 60 tonnes per month in 2026 as countries continue diversifying reserves away from the dollar. For the first time in decades, the market value of gold held by foreign central banks has overtaken their holdings of U.S. Treasuries—close to $4 trillion.

• The Fed pivot trade is alive. Markets are pricing in two cuts in the second half of 2026. The released Thursday came in line with expectations, reinforcing the view that disinflation is progressing without forcing the Fed into emergency action. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no yield. Western ETF holdings have increased by approximately 500 tons since the start of 2025, outpacing predictions based solely on rate-cut expectations.

Silver Is Running Even Hotter

If gold is surging, silver is absolutely screaming. The white metal jumped nearly 3% on Friday toward $99 per ounce, setting fresh all-time highs and closing in on the psychological $100 barrier.

Silver has gained more than 180% over the past year—nearly triple gold’s returns. Bank of America’s Michael Widmer has projected silver could reach between $135 and $309 per ounce in 2026.

That upper target might sound absurd until you consider the structural forces at play.

The Silver Institute reported a fifth consecutive year of structural market deficit, with demand exceeding supplies. The shortfall isn’t just about investment demand. Silver is critical for solar panels, AI data center components, and electric vehicle electronics. China’s tightening export controls have added another layer of supply pressure.

A historic short squeeze has also fueled the rally, with retail investors piling into a market far smaller and more volatile than gold. Silver’s nominal all-time high hit $96.60 on January 22. Adjusted for inflation, the 1980 peak of $49.45 would translate to roughly $200 per ounce today—suggesting silver may have considerable room left to run.

How to Play the Precious Metals Rally

For investors looking to capitalize on the move, several options exist across the risk spectrum.

• offers the most liquid direct exposure to gold prices. The ETF holds physical bullion and tracks the spot price closely, minus the 0.40% expense ratio. It’s the simplest way to own gold without dealing with storage or insurance hassles.
• provides similar exposure to silver. Given silver’s higher volatility and larger percentage moves, SLV offers more upside—and more risk—than gold ETFs.
• tracks major gold producers like Newmont, , and Agnico Eagle. The ETF has returned 153% over the past year, roughly double gold’s gains, demonstrating the leverage miners provide during bull markets. GDX hit a 52-week high of $106.09 this week.
• focuses on smaller exploration and development companies. Junior miners returned 177% in 2025, offering even more beta to gold prices. The trade-off is higher volatility and company-specific risk. When gold corrects, these names get hit hardest.