Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.4 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, and September), according to the updated estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent.
Due to the recent government shutdown, this updated report for the third quarter of 2025 replaces the release of the third estimate originally scheduled for December 19, 2025.
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, government spending, and investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point from the initial estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to exports and investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. Imports were revised up. For more information, refer to the “Technical Notes” below.
Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected upturns in investment, exports, and government spending, as well as an acceleration in consumer spending. Imports decreased less in the third quarter than in the second.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 2.9 percent in the third quarter, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate.
From an industry perspective, the increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases of 5.3 percent in real value added for private services-producing industries and 3.6 percent for private goods-producing industries that were partly offset by a decrease of 0.3 percent in real value added for government.
Real gross output increased 3.2 percent in the third quarter, reflecting increases of 4.4 percent for private services-producing industries and 2.1 percent for government that were partly offset by a decrease of 0.1 percent for private goods-producing industries.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the third quarter, the same as previously estimated. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.8 percent, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 2.9 percent, both the same as previously estimated.
Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.4 percent in the third quarter, the same as previously estimated. The average of real GDP and real GDI increased 3.4 percent, the same as previously estimated.
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $175.6 billion in the third quarter, an upward revision of $9.5 billion.
| Real GDP and Related Measures | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| [Percent Change (SAAR) from 2025 Q2 to Q3] | |||
| Initial Estimate | Updated Estimate | ||
| Real GDP | 4.3 | 4.4 | |
| Current-dollar GDP | 8.2 | 8.3 | |
| Real final sales to private domestic purchasers | 3.0 | 2.9 | |
| Real GDI | 2.4 | 2.4 | |
| Average of real GDP and real GDI | 3.4 | 3.4 | |
| Gross domestic purchases price index | 3.4 | 3.4 | |
| PCE price index | 2.8 | 2.8 | |
| PCE price index excluding food and energy | 2.9 | 2.9 | |
Upcoming improvements to the GDP news release
BEA’s ongoing modernization and streamlining of news release packages will include improvements to the GDP news release beginning with the advance estimate for the fourth quarter of 2025 on February 20, 2026. The news release text will be modified to include links to BEA’s online Interactive Data Tables. News release tables in PDF or Excel format will no longer be provided beginning with the third estimate on April 9, 2026. This change will reduce duplication, increase efficiency, and point users directly to the most complete data.
Next release: February 20, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EST
Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate)
4th Quarter and Year 2025
Technical Notes
Sources of revisions to real GDP
Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.4 percent (1.1 percent at a quarterly rate ) in the third quarter, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to exports and investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. Imports were revised up.
- For both exports and imports, the revised estimates primarily reflected updated data from BEA’s International Transactions Accounts (ITAs).
- Within exports, the upward revision was primarily to goods (led by capital goods, except automotive; industrial supplies and materials; and foods, feeds, and beverages).
- Within imports, the revision primarily reflected an upward revision to goods (led by automotive vehicles, engines, and parts).
- Within investment, an upward revision to private inventory investment was partly offset by a downward revision to residential fixed investment.
- The upward revision to inventory investment was led by retail trade and wholesale trade, based primarily on updated Census Bureau inventory data.
- The downward revision to residential fixed investment was based on revised Census Bureau Value of Construction Put in Place data for July and August and new data for September.
More information on the source data and BEA assumptions that underlie the updated third-quarter estimate is shown in the key source data and assumptions table (available at 10 a.m.).
