President Trump called for a ban on Wall Street investors purchasing single-family homes, and reiterated an order for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy billions in mortgage bonds.
President Trump’s speech at the World Economic Speech in Davos on Wednesday was partly focused on housing reform, though the housing message was largely overshadowed by discourse on Greenland. The White House reiterated calls for policies meant to combat the country’s housing affordability crisis: A ban on investors purchasing single-family homes, and an order for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion worth of mortgage bonds.
Here’s an outline of those housing proposals, along with takeaways and commentary.
Banning Institutional Investors From Buying Single-Family Homes
Takeaway: Unlikely to be effective because large investors own a very small share of single-family homes in the U.S.
President Trump proposed a ban on big institutional investors purchasing single-family homes in early January, and he reiterated the proposal in his Davos speech, saying “America will not become a nation of renters.” The White House also issued an executive order on the topic, titled “Stopping Wall Street From Competing With Main Street Homebuyers.”
A policy move like that can sound good on paper because narrowing the homebuying pool to include only people seeking to live in the home themselves could help with affordability because it would limit competition.
But there are drawbacks to the proposal, and other solutions–like building more homes–would do more to improve homebuying affordability.
Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather outlined the reasons why banning Wall Street investors from buying homes won’t fix the affordability crisis in this article. Among the key points:
- Large investors own less than 5% of the country’s single-family homes.
- Banning corporate landlords could hurt the development of new housing units, and policymakers should focus on upping housing supply instead.
- The order is limited in scope. Institutional investors buy the vast majority of their homes in the form of new construction built specifically for their own purposes–and that type of housing isn’t included in the ban, because the White House doesn’t want to limit new construction.
Ordering a $200 Billion Mortgage-Bond Purchase
Takeaway: Unlikely to meaningfully reduce housing costs because this is a relatively small asset purchase program, historically speaking.
In early January, Trump directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds above what they would normally buy, which he said on social media would help bring down mortgage rates. He doubled down on that order in his Davos speech.
The news immediately brought about a rally in MBS markets and pushed down mortgage rates, from about 6.2% to about 6%, which improved homebuyers’ purchasing power. The daily average mortgage rate has since bounced back up to about 6.2%.
We expect the ultimate impact of this move to be small, largely because spending $200 billion on mortgage bonds is a relatively small asset purchase program, relatively speaking. For instance, the Federal Reserve instituted various Quantitative Easing (QE) programs over the last two decades to bring down mortgage rates, and in those programs, the Fed bought much bigger quantities. Here’s more on those past QE programs, and more details on our economist’s thoughts about the mortgage bond buy. Another limit on this policy: If it’s not sustained over a long period of time, mortgage rates will pop back up.
It’s important to note these policy announcements aren’t final. Many policy decisions require congressional approval, and even items that require only administrative action take time to implement.
Other Potential Housing Policies
There are several housing policies that the president didn’t touch on during his Davos speech; executive orders or other action on them could be coming soon. Those include:
- Eliminating capital gains taxes on home sales
- Allowing homebuyers to use tax-advantaged accounts, like 401(k)s and 529s, for their down payments
- Using other tax incentives to build more housing; i.e. expanding Opportunity Zones and using New Markets Tax Credits to build more low-income housing
- Creating portable mortgages
- Expanding the use of assumable mortgages
We’ll keep an eye on housing proposals coming down the pipeline and provide commentary.
