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College enrollment has been declining for more than a decade, especially after 2010. That story is well known by now. What’s less understood is what has happened underneath that trend.
Even with fewer students going to college overall, completion rates have improved. According to data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC), six-year completion rates have risen across most sectors since 2010 — most notably at community colleges.
And even though total enrollment is lower, the number of younger adults earning bachelor’s and graduate degrees has steadily increased. Fewer people are entering college, but more of those who do are finishing.
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There are two reasons for this shift.
First, many colleges have spent the past decade prioritizing completion — streamlining degree pathways, improving advising, adding intrusive outreach and building academic and financial support systems that simply didn’t exist 10 or 15 years ago.
Second, the students historically least likely to finish may now be opting out of college altogether. When that group doesn’t enroll, the remaining population appears stronger on paper, mechanically nudging completion rates upward even if no real improvement occurs.
But this positive trend has slowed. The latest numbers show a plateau. The six-year completion rate for the fall 2017 cohort was essentially unchanged from the 2015 cohort, and completion declined in all four-year sectors for that specific group.
So the concern is no longer “why are fewer students enrolling?” but “how do we keep the ones who do?”
And that’s where financial aid becomes a make-or-break factor.
Why students leave college
Roughly 60% to 62% of first-time college students earn a credential within six years, according to both NSCRC and the National Center for Education Statistics. That means nearly 40% take longer, remain enrolled without finishing or drop out.
When researchers ask students why they left, the answers are remarkably consistent across studies:
- It wasn’t the coursework
- It wasn’t academic difficulty
- It was a financial strain
According to Trellis Strategies, 67% of students work for pay while enrolled, and four out of five of those students work more than 20 hours a week. Other studies show 58% to 70% of undergraduates work at least part-time.
No matter how motivated a student is, this combination — tight budgets, long work hours and unpredictable costs — directly affects momentum, credit load and the likelihood of finishing.
Families need more than ‘fill out the FAFSA’
Parents and students hear the same advice every year: Complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA), look for grants and apply for scholarships.
All of that is necessary, but not sufficient. The aid landscape is more complicated than that, especially when it comes to understanding which funding actually continues beyond the first year.
A recurring point of confusion is the difference between one-time grants, renewable grants and project-based awards.
One-time grants. Many grants — especially private or special-project awards — are explicitly one-time. They cover a single year or a specific purpose and do not renew. These can be incredibly helpful for year one, but families should not build multiyear plans around them.
Renewable grants. Some grants are renewable, but “renewable” does not mean “automatically renewed.” Students usually must reapply or meet yearly requirements. GPA thresholds, enrollment intensity and financial need can change the award amount. Even federal Pell Grant recipients must submit the FAFSA every year and maintain eligibility.
Very few grants are renewed by default. That nuance matters when families map out costs for four or more years.
Project-based or institutional grants. These are tied to a particular academic initiative, research project, or institutional priority. When the project ends, the grant ends — even if the student’s need continues.
All of these grants come with a Notice of Funding Opportunity (NOFO) or award letter, which explicitly states:
- Whether the funding is one-time or renewable
- Eligibility rules for renewal
- Conditions that can increase or reduce the award
- Whether reapplication is required
- Contact for questions
Most students never read this fully — families should.
What can families do to protect completion?
Here’s the part that matters: Practical steps families can take right now, grounded in how the financial aid system actually works.
1. Build a four-year cost map, not a one-year snapshot
Use tools such as:
- College net price calculators on each school’s website
- College Scorecard for completion and earnings expectations
- Edvisors.com planning tools for comparing four-year costs, grants, scholarships and loan scenarios (I am the chief marketing officer at Edvisors.com)
Families who understand the trajectory of costs — not just the first bill — make better decisions.
2. Create a renewal checklist for every aid type
For each grant, scholarship and loan, list:
- Renewal requirement (if any)
- GPA or credit minimums
- FAFSA deadlines
- Whether financial changes require an appeal
A lot of drop-outs happen because students don’t realize a grant disappeared until after the charges hit.
3. Keep a running list of emergency aid options
Many colleges now offer:
- Micro-grants
- Emergency completion grants
- Short-term tuition coverage
- Food or housing support
- Transportation funds
Families should identify these before a crisis, not during one.
4. Be realistic about work hours
A student consistently working 25 to 30 hours a week while taking full-time credits is at a higher risk of stop-out.
Families can:
- Encourage seeking predictable-schedule employers
- Explore campus jobs
- Use summer sessions strategically
- Ask the aid office about credit-load impact before dropping classes
Academic momentum is one of the strongest predictors of completion.
5. Make FAFSA renewal automatic
Put reminders in calendars for:
- FAFSA opening date
- Priority deadlines
- Document deadlines
- Loan counseling or entrance/exit requirements
Late FAFSA = late awarding = late decision-making = higher risk of melt or stop-out.
6. Use scholarship search tools consistently, not once
Instead of “search once and forget,” treat scholarship applications as ongoing. Look for:
- Monthly scholarship cycles
- Renewable scholarship opportunities
- Departmental or major-specific funding
- Local and regional awards with lighter competition
Many students only look for scholarships during their senior year of high school. They leave money on the table every year after.
The real message for families
Enrollment matters, but completion matters more. The last decade has shown that colleges can move the needle when they intentionally design for persistence, but the burden can’t sit entirely on institutions.
To be better positioned to help students finish the journey — from the first day of enrollment to the first job after graduation, families should understand:
- How multiyear cost structures work
- How to interpret (and not assume) grant renewals
- What the data actually says about why students leave and
- Which resources exist now to buffer financial instability
Financial aid can be a driver of completion, but only when families have a clear view of the entire financial landscape, not just the first step.
