Gold futures topped $4,636 on COMEX this week while silver breached $90 for the first time, extending a precious metals rally that shows no signs of slowing down.
The twin surges come amid a perfect storm of geopolitical flashpoints, concerns over Federal Reserve independence, and a structural supply squeeze in the silver market that has fund managers increasingly confident both metals will hit milestone targets before mid-year. Gold has gained roughly 7% in 2026 alone, building on last year’s 64% advance—the best annual performance since 1979.
Silver? Even more dramatic, up 29% year-to-date after doubling in 2025.
Here’s what’s driving the rally and how investors can position for what comes next.
The Fed Factor: Powell Probe Rattles Confidence
The catalyst that sent gold screaming past $4,600 on January 13 wasn’t inflation data or employment figures. It was news that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces a criminal investigation tied to the $2.5 billion renovation of Fed headquarters—a probe Powell himself called a “pretext” to gain control over rate policy.
Markets responded predictably. The dollar weakened, Treasury yields dipped, and capital flooded into the one asset class that thrives on monetary uncertainty. A dozen central bankers—including the heads of the European Central Bank and Bank of England—issued a statement defending Powell and standing in “full solidarity” with the Fed. That kind of coordinated pushback only underscored how unprecedented the situation has become.
“The investigation into Powell has added a fresh layer of policy risk,” noted analysts at Bank of Singapore. “Especially if it results in him stepping down earlier than scheduled and being replaced by someone more aligned with the administration’s rate preferences.”
The Fed’s next meeting on January 27-28 is widely expected to hold rates steady. But futures markets are pricing in two to three cuts this year—more than policymakers themselves projected—giving gold another tailwind as real yields decline.
Geopolitics: Venezuela, Iran, and the Return of “Resource Nationalism”
The Fed drama would be enough on its own. Add in military action to remove Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, tensions over Iran’s crackdown on protesters, and friction with China over critical mineral exports, and you’ve got a geopolitical backdrop that reads like a safe-haven investor’s wish list.
Daniel Casali at Evelyn Partners calls it “resource nationalism.” China announced silver export restrictions effective January 2026, tightening an already constrained market. The U.S. response? Secure Venezuelan oil and talk openly about bringing Greenland under American control.
“The key message is resource nationalism can force up gold and silver prices,” Casali told CNBC.
Silver’s Supply Crisis Is Real
While gold gets the headlines, silver is where the structural story gets truly compelling. The metal has been in supply deficit since 2021, with cumulative shortfalls exceeding 796 million ounces. UBS projects the gap will widen to 293 million ounces in 2026—roughly 15% of annual production.
The problem? Unlike copper or lithium, silver production can’t respond quickly to price signals. Between 70% and 80% of global silver comes as a byproduct of zinc, copper, and lead mining. Miners don’t ramp up zinc operations just because silver hits $90.
Ned Naylor-Leyland at Jupiter Asset Management isn’t mincing words: “Silver is basically disappearing to China and India. There’s about a $10 premium being paid in Shanghai for physical bars. The remaining silver sitting in London and New York futures markets should continue heading east.”
Industrial demand isn’t easing either. Silver is essential to solar panels, electric vehicles, 5G infrastructure, and AI data centers. Roughly 59% of total demand now comes from industrial applications—and that share keeps climbing.
Central Banks: Still Buying
One of gold’s underappreciated tailwinds is the sustained appetite from central banks diversifying away from dollar reserves. China extended its gold-buying streak to 14 consecutive months in December, bringing holdings to 74.15 million troy ounces. Goldman Sachs expects central bank purchases of around 70 tonnes in 2026, while the World Gold Council reported record ETF inflows of $89 billion in 2025.
Holdings in major gold-backed ETFs including reached 1,073 metric tonnes in late December—the highest level in over three years. Combined holdings across GLD, , and SPDR Gold MiniShares (GLDM) now sit at approximately $251 billion.
That sounds enormous, but here’s the telling detail: as a percentage of the ’s $63 trillion market cap, American investors’ implied gold allocation is still just 0.4%. If that figure even normalizes to 2-3%—well below the 5-10% allocation historically recommended—the capital flows into bullion could be massive.
5 Mining Stocks Positioned for the Rally
For investors who want leverage to rising metal prices without owning physical bullion, mining equities offer amplified exposure. Here are five names across gold and silver with the fundamentals to benefit:
1. — The world’s largest gold miner by production has been the clear winner of the precious metals surge, with shares up 174% over the past 12 months.
The Denver-based company generated $4.5 billion in free cash flow through the first three quarters of 2025 and trades at roughly 14x forward earnings. Newmont recently hit a 52-week high near $115 and analysts see support between $92-$94 on any pullback.
2. — The safest bet in a volatile sector. Agnico operates primarily in Canada, Australia, and Finland—jurisdictions that don’t impose sudden royalty hikes or nationalization threats. The company deployed 120 drill rigs in 2025, unlocking up to 1.5 million ounces of potential production. With an $81 billion market cap and strong free cash flow, AEM has become the defensive gold miner for nervous portfolios.
3. — Barrick dropped “Gold” from its name in 2025 to reflect diversification into copper, but gold still drives the business. The company reported record quarterly free cash flow of $1.5 billion last quarter—a 274% increase—largely due to higher realized gold prices. Shares have surged 182% over the past year and analysts see continued margin expansion if gold holds above $4,500.
4. — The largest silver-focused miner by market cap, Pan American operates 10 producing mines across North and South America. The company just closed a $2.1 billion acquisition of MAG Silver, adding the high-grade Juanicipio mine to its portfolio. Silver guidance has been lifted to 22-22.5 million ounces for 2025, and the La Colorada Skarn project is advancing toward a feasibility study in 2026. Trading at 14x forward earnings with a 2% dividend yield.
5. — The higher-beta play for investors who want maximum leverage to silver. First Majestic derives 57% of revenue from silver—the highest in the sector—and operates primarily in Mexico. The company completed its acquisition of Gatos Silver in early 2025, adding the Cerro Los Gatos mine. Shares have rallied from $5 to nearly $20 over the past 12 months. More volatile than Pan American, but with greater upside if silver breaks $100.
What Could Go Wrong
The obvious risk is that gold and silver have gotten ahead of themselves. Both metals are trading far above their 200-day moving averages—gold by 25%, silver by a truly extreme 73%. Pullbacks after parabolic moves are normal and healthy.
The other risk is a sudden shift in Fed policy. If inflation reaccelerates and the Fed pivots hawkish, the rate-cut bets supporting gold could unwind quickly. The administration’s own tariff policies could stoke price pressures, creating an uncomfortable scenario where the very policies adding to geopolitical uncertainty also remove the monetary tailwind.
Then there’s profit-taking. After the gains of 2025, some institutional investors may be looking to lock in returns rather than add exposure. Mining stocks in particular—despite their monster rallies—could see corrections if broad equity markets turn lower.
What to Watch Next
The Fed meeting January 27-28 is the immediate catalyst. Markets will parse every word from the statement for hints on whether rate cuts are back on the table or if the bar has risen. Any escalation in the Powell investigation would likely trigger another leg higher in gold.
On silver, watch the Shanghai premium. If the spread between Chinese and Western prices widens further, it signals physical supply stress that futures contracts can’t easily resolve. China’s export quotas and COMEX inventory levels are the tell.
For miners, earnings season kicks off in February. Investors will want to see whether the surging metal prices are flowing through to margins or being offset by higher labor and energy costs. The companies with disciplined cost structures—Agnico Eagle and Pan American among them—should stand out.
Gold at $5,000 and silver at $100 no longer sound like fringe predictions. HSBC sees gold reaching $5,050 in the first half of 2026. Jupiter Asset Management calls those targets “absolutely” achievable. The fundamentals—Fed uncertainty, central bank buying, supply deficits, geopolitical chaos—all point the same direction.
Betting against precious metals now means betting the world suddenly becomes less complicated. That seems like the riskier trade.
