(BOE Report) – U.S. oil executives being summoned to the White House on Friday to discuss potential investment plans in Venezuela will be carefully weighing the country’s business potential and enthusiasm from President Donald Trump with a more cautious sentiment being expressed by some of their investors. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, speaking at a Goldman Sachs energy conference in Miami this week, repeated a claim from Trump that U.S. oil firms were prepared to spend billions of dollars to rebuild the South American country’s oil economy after U.S. forces removed Nicolás Maduro from power on Saturday.
Some energy investors were skeptical, however, and questioned the cost of any such spending in Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest estimated crude reserves. They also had ongoing concerns about the country’s political stability and whether they could trust the interim government in Caracas being run by Delcy Rodriguez.
“Investors will want to see long-lasting stability and good fiscal terms to protect against the risk of asset nationalization, which we’ve seen from Venezuela in the past,” said David Byrns, portfolio manager and senior investment analyst at American Century Investments, which is a major Chevron and Exxon Mobil shareholder.
Multiple attendees of private meetings held by Chevron and ConocoPhillips at the Miami conference told Reuters that executives from those companies offered few insights into Venezuela, but made one thing clear: they did not intend to make rash decisions.
Chevron and Conoco did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
On Friday, Trump is expected to urge oil executives to invest and help boost Venezuela’s crude production during a meeting attended by Wright, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and 17 major firms. The companies represented will include ConocoPhillips, Exxon, Chevron, along with Spain’s Repsol and trading firms Vitol and Trafigura, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Chevron already operates in the country, but Exxon and Conoco departed nearly 20 years ago after their assets were nationalized and are still owed billions of dollars. “The tension is between the compelling geological resource and the obvious business opportunity, and the considerable above-ground risk, uncertainty and unpaid claims,” said Geoffrey Pyatt, former Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources in the Biden administration. Foreign embassies in Venezuela are beginning to arrange visits for next week that will include representatives for American and European oil companies, two sources told Reuters on Thursday. Matthew Sallee, head of investments at fund manager Tortoise Capital, which owns shares in Chevron, said he could support further Venezuela investments if Chevron could show returns paying out, but he would be very cautious because infrastructure in the country is so dilapidated.
“If Chevron says we’re going to dedicate multi-billion dollars a year to Venezuela, we would probably sell,” he said.
Service companies, which could be among the first to benefit from any rush into Venezuela as infrastructure gets rebuilt, have tried to curb any immediate enthusiasm. “We have a yard in Colombia, across the border, that could deliver rigs into the region, and we understand what it takes to work there, but we need to make sure that the timing is right and that we have the right customer-partner relationship going in,” said Helmerich & Payne President Trey Adams, speaking at the Miami conference.
QUESTIONS ABOUT POLITICAL INSTABILITY STILL LOOM
Ali Moshiri, Chevron’s former president of Africa and Latin America, who is now CEO of Amos Global Energy, said his firm planned to enter Venezuela and was in early-stage talks with U.S. government departments for public funding, and with service companies to repair infrastructure and build pipelines. But despite overwhelming interest from investors, the plan would be contingent on the U.S. determining who will manage the transition period in the country, he added.
“That decision must be made, it is the precondition for investors,” Moshiri said. While Trump has said the U.S. intends to control Venezuela, how that plays out on the ground remains unclear, especially given questions about how different spheres of power in Caracas will get along in the absence of Maduro. The U.S. has a three-step plan for Venezuela that will begin with stabilization, followed by a recovery phase ensuring U.S. oil companies have access to the country and finally a transition, Rubio said on Wednesday. Some U.S. oil companies may worry they could be pressured to enter Venezuela quickly or potentially face repercussions down the road, said Samantha Carl-Yoder, co-chair of the international practice at lobbying firm Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck. “Companies may feel they have to go back in to get things they want in other areas. Will the administration hold permits and licensing hostage? Will the administration provide some financial incentives to companies going in? Those are questions I would have if I were an integrated oil company,” she said.
(Reporting by Sheila Dang, Nathan Crooks and David French in Miami, Jarrett Renshaw in Washington, and Shariq Khan in New York; additional reporting by Stephanie Kelly and Pietro Lombardi; Editing by Nathan Crooks and Nia Williams)
