Venezuela Investments: High-Risk, High-Reward—Or Neither?

When U.S. special forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 3, 2026, some on Wall Street immediately wanted to know if the world’s largest oil reserves were now open for business. 

Venezuelan bonds, as well as shares in Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil (XOM) and ConocoPhillips (COP), jumped on President Trump’s promise that American companies would “spend billions” rebuilding the country’s energy sector.

But can you invest in Venezuela? The answer is as complex as the country’s political situation. For most Americans, not yet. Any investments would be a high-risk gamble in a country with $150 billion in debt and an oil industry that needs at least a decade to rebuild.

What’s Available to US Investors

When U.S. investors want exposure to a foreign country, they typically have a few options: buy an American depositary receipt (ADR), which lets them trade foreign stocks on U.S. exchanges; invest in a country-specific exchange-traded fund (ETF); or buy shares directly on a foreign exchange through a broker that offers international access.

None of that’s available for Venezuela. No Venezuelan ADRs trade on U.S. exchanges. Venezuela-focused ETFs don’t exist. Teucrium Investment Advisors filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Jan. 5 to offer a fund that would track Venezuelan companies and firms with heavy exposure to the country. But it’s not yet trading.

While the Caracas Stock Exchange keeps regular hours, it has only about 60 listings and trades in bolívares. Even if you found a way in, U.S. sanctions could make any trades illegal.

Shares on American Exchanges

That leaves indirect exposure as the only practical route for most Americans:

Oil majors: Chevron is the only major Western producer still operating in Venezuela, accounting for about a quarter of the country’s output. ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips exited after nationalizations in 2007 but still have outstanding arbitration claims worth about $10 billion combined—and would likely return if sanctions are lifted.

Oil services: SLB (SLB) and Halliburton (HAL) stand to win billions in contracts if Venezuela’s decaying infrastructure gets rebuilt. Valero (VLO), a major U.S. refiner, could see growth from access to Venezuela’s heavy crude.

ETFs: State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) offers broad exposure to the companies above. For bond exposure, the Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets High Yield Bond ETF (VEMY) has been adding Venezuelan debt to its holdings.

Bonds and Debt Instruments 

The government of Venezuela and PDVSA, the state-owned oil and gas company, have issued debt over the years, but Venezuela has been in default since 2017. The country owes an estimated $150 billion to $170 billion, including PDVSA obligations, bilateral loans and arbitration awards. That puts its debt-to-GDP ratio somewhere between 180% and 200%, worse than Greece at its crisis peak.

The country’s bonds have rallied since Maduro’s capture, now trading at 23 to 33 cents on the dollar after doubling in 2025. Analysts at Citi and Allianz estimate recovery values could reach 40 to 50 cents under a best-case restructuring, but that scenario assumes political stability and sanctions relief. None of that is guaranteed, and any restructuring would likely take years.

Should You Invest in Venezuela? 

The short answer: very likely not for retail investors, but that could change.

The Bullish Case

A credible political transition could unlock sanctions relief, bring back Western oil majors, and create a path to a debt restructuring. That’s what pushed bonds and oil stocks higher after the U.S. raid on Maduro.

Venezuela is home to the world’s largest crude oil reserves, with proven reserves of 303 billion barrels, or about 17% of the global total. Yet production has collapsed from 3.5 million barrels per day in the late 1990s to under 1 million today.

Trump said after Maduro’s capture that U.S. oil companies would “fix the badly broken infrastructure” of Venezuela’s oil industry. A few days later, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that the U.S. will control Venezuelan oil sales “indefinitely” and roll back sanctions that have choked the country’s crude exports for years.

If sanctions are lifted and foreign capital returns, output could eventually triple, but that could be a decade or more off.

The Bearish Case

The bullish case is nowhere near a sure thing. For one, the sanctions are still in place, at least for now. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, interim president, has publicly rejected U.S. control.

It will take an estimated $10 billion in annual investment just to restore Venezuela’s existing oil infrastructure. Returning to the production levels of two decades ago will take tens of billions more.

Companies have also not forgotten the nationalizations ordered by Hugo Chávez in the early 2000s, as ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips still have combined outstanding arbitration claims of about $10 billion.

The Bottom Line

For regular investors, the practical play is indirect: oil majors such as Chevron and Exxon that would benefit from renewed access, services companies including SLB and Halliburton that would win reconstruction contracts, or broad energy ETFs such as XLE.

Venezuelan bonds and direct investment remain the domain of hedge funds and distressed-debt specialists who can wait years for a restructuring that may never come.