People Are Betting Millions of Dollars on Invasions, Regime Changes and More

The world is unsettled—and people are wagering on what will happen next.

Event contracts tied to geopolitical events in the Middle East, China, and elsewhere are trending on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Trading volumes have risen on questions like “Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?” and “World leaders out before 2027?” alongside the more regular fare related to sports and where the S&P 500 will close. An Investopedia scan of 20 popular geopolitically linked bets on those two platforms recently found a total of more than $110 million in wagers across them.

Attacks, conquests, and the fall of governments or their leaders appear to be the lottery tickets of the moment. Over $10.5 million in trading volume has been generated on the question “Will the U.S. invade Venezuela?”—referring to the U.S. using military operations intended to establish control of the country, Polymarket’s site shows.

And there’s almost $1.4 million in trading volume tied to the question of whether Israel will strike Iran by the end of January on the same venue. On Kalshi, a contract guessing who the next leader of Venezuela will be has generated over $2 million in trading volume and; around $1 million has been bet on one that guesses at which world leaders will be out before the end of the year.

It might make sense that folks are flocking to make such wagers after one trader won big betting that Nicolás Maduro would soon be out as Venezuela’s leader, which appeared to be a long-shot even in the hours before the announcement of his capture. As is usually the case in betting, the longer the odds, the greater the profit.

The “Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by…” question created in mid-December has clocked over $10.5 million in trading volume, according to Polymarket. There’s a 5% probability of that occurring by Jan. 31, based on the trading volume. If one buys 1,000 shares of the “yes” contract, they could see a profit of $950—or a loss of $50. Buying a “yes” on Dec. 31, seen as having 25% odds of occurring, would net $750 but risk a loss of $250.

A “note on middle east markets” appears on related Polymarket events contracts, saying that prediction markets “harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts” which are “particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today.”

The perceived odds of the “yes” on another Polymarket question—”[Ali] Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30—have risen to over 30% from around 19% in late December as citizens started anti-government protests across the country.Assuming one buys 1,000 shares of the “yes” contract for 34 cents apiece, they would win $660 or lose $340.

Compare that to a similar question: “Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei,” which would resolve to a “no” only if the Iranian leader leaves the country for any length of time or if he no longer occupies his role before the contract’s expiration. A win on 1,000 shares of a “yes” contract would garner a $260 profit, or a $740 loss.