Expectations for in 2025 were very high. Many investors expected a strong year based on past cycles. That pattern failed to play out.
Bitcoin did climb to around $126,000 and set a new high. But heavy selling in the final quarter erased those gains. By year’s end, Bitcoin finished down about 6 percent.
This outcome has split market views. Some investors expect a rebound in 2026. Others believe current conditions point to continued weakness.
The Cycle Story is Broken
The idea of a major Bitcoin rally every four years failed to play out in 2025. In the past, the belief that prices surge after each halving worked well in 2013, 2017, and 2021, as lower supply helped push prices higher. In 2025, that effect appeared weaker and slower.
One key reason is a change in market structure. Large institutional money, especially through ETFs, now plays a much bigger role. Earlier cycles were driven mainly by retail investors, which led to sharp rises and steep drops. Today’s investors move more deliberately. That helps limit panic selling, but it also slows the kind of fast, emotional rallies seen in earlier years.
Another important factor is timing. Bitcoin peaked in 2024, before the halving took place. Much of the excitement and buying that usually follows a halving seems to have arrived early. As a result, 2025 failed to deliver the strong breakout many expected.
Looking ahead, the main question is whether new triggers will revive interest in the market. Steadier behavior from large investors helps Bitcoin’s long term stability, but its performance now depends far more on global economic and financial conditions.
If risk appetite improves worldwide, money is likely to flow back into crypto more strongly. If global sentiment weakens instead, any recovery in Bitcoin is likely to be slower and take longer to fully develop.
Technical Outlook for Bitcoin
The overall picture for Bitcoin shows that after peaking in the last quarter of 2025, the market moved into a phase marked by weak bounce attempts and strong selling pressure. On both daily and weekly charts, the price has fallen below levels that previously acted as support, and key averages are trending lower. This suggests selling pressure remains in place over the short to medium term.
From here, attention narrows to two price levels that are likely to define Bitcoin’s next move.
1. $88,000–$85,000 Support Zone
On the daily chart, the drop after the peak sped up once key support levels were broken. After that, the market began looking for a base. Prices found support twice in the $85,000 to $88,000 range. This zone now acts as the main support area. As long as it holds, selling pressure may continue, but a fresh and powerful selloff becomes harder to trigger.
Upside moves, however, continue to struggle. Buying attempts have come on low volume and keep stalling at resistance. The first resistance sits near $91,000, followed by $94,700. Even if prices move above these levels, the $100,000 to $102,000 zone could still cap gains. This area acted as an important level in the past and remains critical for any broader trend recovery.
Daily prices also stay below the short-term 8-day and 21-day EMAs, showing that recent rebounds still look like short-term reactions rather than a lasting recovery.
From a momentum perspective, the Stochastic RSI is close to entering overbought territory while price moves sideways. This points to some short-term buying interest, but it also raises the risk of fatigue near resistance. Until the $91,000 to $94,700 range is clearly cleared, upside momentum may remain limited.
2. $99,000–$102,000 Resistance Zone
The weekly chart shows that Bitcoin has fallen below its rising channel and is now trading under short-term averages after the breakout in early November. This move weakened the medium-term uptrend. Still, weekly closes above the $82,000 area suggest the market is entering a consolidation phase rather than a sharp decline.
For a stronger rebound on the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin needs to move above $99,250, which aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci level. This level also matches a key resistance seen on the daily chart. A clear move above it could open the way toward the $110,000 area. Beyond that, the previous peak zone near $123,000 could become a natural upside target based on weekly closes.
On the downside, the $88,000 area has acted as support during recent low-volume trading. If this level gives way, the $82,000 to $85,000 range stands as the first major support zone. Below that, the $74,000 to $78,000 area becomes the next line of defense. A break below this region could increase downside pressure and drag Bitcoin back toward older support levels below $70,000.
In summary, holding the $88,000 to $85,000 zone keeps the door open for a short-term recovery and reaction moves. A move back above the $99,000 to $102,000 area would improve the chances of a broader trend recovery. On the downside, weekly closes below $85,000 would likely bring renewed selling pressure.
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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belong to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.
