2025 Data
Now I don’t count the last two weeks of the year because all the weekly housing data gets impacted by the holidays and the first few days of the new year. However, with 2025 mostly in the books, here is what the purchase application data looked like:
- 23 positive readings
- 20 negative readings
- 6 flat prints
- 46 straight weeks of positive year-over-year data
- 33 consecutive weeks of double-digit growth year over year
On the surface, the year-over-year data looks really good. However, we are working from record-low levels based on purchase application data from 2024, so the year-over-year percent increase in 2025 has to be taken with a grain of salt. Also, our new listings data showed growth in 2025, which means most of these new sellers were going to be mortgage buyers, so that explains some of the year-over-year increase in purchase application data.
When housing demand improves
Since 2022, our best existing-home sales prints have come not when purchase applications show year-over-year growth but when we have positive week-to-week data. A good example of this was in late 2022 and the mid part of 2024. In late 2022 and early 2023, we had about 12 weeks of positive week-to-week data, but no year-over-year growth. That led to almost 500,000 more home sales in February of 2023 than in January.
In 2024, we had hardly any year-over-year flat or positive data, but the week-to-week data showed 12 positive week-to-week prints versus five negative and one flat week. That led to a couple hundred thousand more home sales from the lows in 2024. So what happened in 2025?
As the 10-year yield fell and mortgage rates finally fell below 6.64%, we started to see more positive week-to-week data. In fact, housing data tends to improve when mortgage rates head below 6.64% and down toward 6%. As we can see below, the 10-year yield has been moving lower all year, and unlike the end of 2024, it’s stayed near the lows of the year in the last two months of the year.
Here is what the purchase application data looked like when rates went below 6.64%;
- 11 positive week-to-week prints
- 9 negative week-to-week prints
- 20 weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth
What this data did was give us a 9-month high in existing home sales, roughly 200,000 more home sales than the lows in June.
Conclusion
When we think about housing in 2026, we should focus on week-to-week data, including purchase application data. The extremely low bar for year-over-year growth comps we saw in 2025 don’t apply to 2026, so the week-to-week data will be key. If we can string positive week-to-week data and year-over-year growth, that will be good for housing.
Purchase application data looks out 30-90 days, so it’s a good indicator of future sales growth when we have positive week-to-week data and year-over-year growth. As you can see in the chart below, with mortgage spreads at a 3-year low and almost back to the normal range of 1.60%-1.80%, it does provide a better backdrop for demand now than in the last several years.
As we start the year 2026, the weekend Housing Market Tracker will constantly update the mortgage purchase application data with context around the week-to-week and year-over-year numbers so you can make sense of this crucial housing data line.
