Russia’s production this year will remain unchanged from the previous year at some 516 million tons, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said today, adding that in 2026, oil production should rise to 525 million tons, Interfax cited the official as saying.
The 2025 total is equal to around 10.36 million barrels daily, to rise to 10.54 million barrels daily in 2036, based on a conversion ratio of 7.33 barrels in a ton. The 2026 increase is about 2% on this year and will be pursued “in accordance with the socio-economic development forecast,” Novak said.
Over the next five years, crude oil production could rise to 540 million tons annually, the deputy PM also said, noting that this would require fresh investments in the industry.
“We are moving into hard-to-recover reserves, primarily on the Arctic shelf. This requires additional costs and appropriate investment. Therefore, we will continue our efforts, including preparing and creating conditions to boost investment inflows into this sector,” Novak said.
Commenting on global oil market developments, Novak said supply and demand are in balance, echoing the position of Russia’s partners from OPEC+, which is very different from the positions of entities such as the International Energy Agency and most forecasting agencies. All of the latter see a sizable supply overhang in crude oil going into 2026, while demand, according to them, continues failing to live up to optimistic expectations.
Kpler reported earlier this month that the amount of oil on tankers had gone up to the highest since 2020, reaching 1.3 billion barrels. But storage hubs in the Caribbean and South Africa are sitting half-empty, and inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, are at their lowest since 2007. This makes for some mixed signals with regard to oil’s fundamentals, suggesting demand may yet surprise to the upside, dragging oil prices higher—especially coupled with continued geopolitical risk.
