The November 2025 Consumer Price Index of All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) report indicates that inflation increased by 0.2% over the last two months, down from 0.3% in September. These data were released at 8:30 am EST on December 18, 2025, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Before seasonal adjustment, the year-over-year (Y-o-Y) inflation rate in the all-items index grew by 2.7%, down from 3.0% in September. As a reminder, the October CPI report was cancelled due to the government shutdown, so there are no comparable figures on a MoM basis.
Today’s results also missed economists’ consensus estimates. The table below is courtesy of Investing.com. The left column represents November’s figures, while the right column represents forecasters’ expectations. As you can see, the red metrics highlight how inflation was subdued relative to forecasts.
After cutting interest rates for the second consecutive meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized on Dec. 10 that “Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will make our decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.”
“Everyone around the table at the FOMC agrees that inflation is too high and we want it to come down, and agrees that the labor market has softened and that there is further risk…. I’ve said before a couple times, we’re well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves. We’ll just have to see.”
As such, with the FOMC confronting uncertainty on both sides of its dual mandate, further labor market weakness is likely necessary for more easing in the months ahead.
Food Prices
The food index rose by 2.6% Y-o-Y in November. Again, the monthly changes are neglected due to the missing October report, so the figures below are relative to November 2024.
- Cereals and bakery products (+1.9%)
- Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs (+4.7%)
- Dairy and related products (-1.6%)
- Fruits and vegetables (+0.1%)
- Nonalcoholic beverages (+4.3%)
- Other food at home (+1.3%)
The food away from home index was up by 3.7%, as restaurant inflation continues to outpace grocery prices.
Energy Prices
The energy index rose by 4.2% Y-o-Y in November, with gasoline prices up by 0.9%, electricity by 6.9%, and natural gas by 9.1%.
Core CPI
The November core CPI rose by 2.6% Y-o-Y, down from 3.0% in September. Below is an itemized breakdown of the main Y-o-Y price fluctuations seen in the core CPI reading:
- Shelter index: (+3.0%)
- Rent index: (+3.0%)
- Owners’ equivalent rent: (+3.4%)
- Motor vehicle insurance: (NA)
- Medical care services: (+3.3%)
- Physician services: (+1.7%)
- Hospital services: (+5.7%)
- Airline fares: (-5.4%)
Seasonally Unadjusted CPI
Before seasonal adjustments, the CPI-U for November 2025 increased by 2.7% Y-o-Y to an index level of 324.122. Since these figures are unadjusted, they include regular seasonal price fluctuations that can create volatility in the results.
Not Bad Enough
With mixed economic data hitting the wire in recent days, there isn’t any concrete evidence that supports the Fed altering its meeting-by-meeting approach.
For example, S&P Global released its U.S. Composite PMI on Dec. 16. And while growth momentum has slowed, the current reading of 53 signals a healthy expansion. An excerpt read:
“The headline S&P Global US PMI ® Composite Output Index fell to 53.0 in December from 54.2 in November, according to the ‘flash’ reading (based on about 85% of usual survey responses). The latest reading was the lowest since June, though continues to indicate robust economic growth….
“Input cost inflation accelerated markedly in December, hitting the fastest since November 2022,” while “increased costs again fed through to higher selling prices, with the overall rate of inflation rising to the steepest since July and therefore amongst the greatest since the pandemic-related price-surge of 2022.”
So, while business activity has softened over the last few months, the modest momentum deceleration is unlikely to induce rate cuts with alternative inflation metrics trending up.
Furthermore, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed on Dec. 16 that the U.S. economy added 64,000 net new jobs in November — a solid increase given the paltry figures realized over the last few months. The report also noted how “Construction employment grew by 28,000 in November, as nonresidential specialty trade contractors added 19,000 jobs,” which highlights decent strength in the interest-rate sensitive sector.
Finally, the U.S. Census Bureau added on Dec. 16 that retail sales remained solid on an annual basis, as consumers continued to spend ahead of the holiday season. An excerpt read:
“Retail trade sales were up 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent)* from September 2025, and up 3.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 9.0 percent (±1.2 percent) from last year, while food service and drinking places were up 4.1 percent (±1.8 percent) from October 2024.”
Add it all up, and the recent data is likely good enough to keep the FOMC in wait-and-see mode.
Turning to the financial markets, gold has had an impressive 2025, and further gains could be in store in the months and years ahead.
To explain, the white line above tracks gold’s indexed performance since Jan. 1, 2025, while the blue line above tracks its indexed performance from Jan. 1, 1979. As you can see, the yellow metal had a lot of runway during the historical surge; and given the similar fundamental developments occurring today, gold’s bull market may have plenty of room to run.
Are you thinking about diversifying into precious metals? Talk to your financial advisor about initiating a gold IRA account today, allowing you to invest in this red-hot asset on a tax-advantaged basis. Additionally, our complimentary CPI inflation calculator remains at your disposal, enabling you to assess inflation’s impact on your finances. Please seek the guidance of a financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Furthermore, if credit concerns have increased alongside the economic uncertainty, residents in Georgia have options at their disposal. Our extensive guide outlines how to approach credit counseling, debt management plans, the different types of loans and financing products, as well as the best companies to help guide you along the way. Similarly, Ohio residents have access to professional solutions, with free and nonprofit assistance also available in the region. Finally, Illinois has several local and nationwide firms that can negotiate with creditors on your behalf, create repayment plans, and help determine if declaring bankruptcy is an appropriate solution.
Remember, speaking with a professional ensures the right products are matched with your needs. For more options across other cities and states, please consult our list of debt management firms that can help keep you on track.
Alex Demolitor is a Canadian financial writer hailing from Halifax, NS. Alex has a Bachelors Degree from King’s College and passed the CFA Exam Level III. He specializes in fundamental analysis of the stock, bond, commodity, and FX markets. He also covers US & Canadian economic indicators.
