November’s Inflation Rates Defy Expectations, Coming in Lower Than Forecast

Inflation fell to its lowest in years in November, according to one important measure.

Consumer prices rose 2.7% over the 12 months through November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday. That was down from a 3% annual increase in September and lower than the 3.1% increase forecasters had expected, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. “Core” inflation, which excludes volatile prices for food and energy, rose 2.6% over the year, down from a 3% annual increase in September and hitting its lowest since 2021.

The reduction in core inflation was especially notable because economists consider core inflation measures to be a more accurate indicator of price trends. Food and gas prices can fluctuate for reasons unrelated to broader inflation trends.

Inflation decelerated because of falling prices for hotel rooms, recreation, and clothing, and a relatively small increase of 0.2% in shelter prices between September and November.

Thursday’s report had been delayed by just over a week because of the government shutdown in October and November, and the bureau did not publish a report for October’s prices.