The Fed’s December interest-rate cut won’t move mortgage rates because markets have already priced it in.
The Fed cut interest rates in its latest meeting, as expected. The Fed committee was divided on how to proceed.
Takeaway: Mortgage rates will remain largely unchanged in the near term with today’s Fed meeting proceeding as forecasted. They cut their policy rate by 25 bps, which was priced in beforehand. The committee was sharply divided, as expected. The committee’s projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks indicate that this will be the last interest-cut for a while.
As expected, a sharply divided Fed voted to cut their policy rate by 25 bps. This action will not impact mortgage rates, as it was fully priced in ahead of the meeting. Of the twelve voting members of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC), nine formally supported the decision to cut by 25 bps. One dissented in favor of a 50 bps cut, and two dissented in favor of no cut. However, of the 19 total (12 voting plus 7 non-voting) FOMC members who get to express their views of economic projections, only 12 supported today’s decision. One preferred a larger 50 bps cut, and six preferred no cut. This is the most disagreement the committee has shown in this latest hiking cycle.
In light of the extent of disagreement, Chair Powell explained the ultimate decision to cut with the following: “I think you can say that the labor market has continued to cool gradually, maybe just a touch more gradually, than we thought.”
After today’s cut, Chair Powell and the rest of the committee see little reason to keep cutting. The median projection has one cut for 2026 as was the case in the last set of projections from September. However, there is wide disagreement with seven projecting no cuts next year, including three officials penciling in a rate hike next year (though Chair Powell clarified in the press conference that he doesn’t believe that to be likely).
Importantly, Chair Powell said twice in the press conference that the 3.5-3.75% Fed Funds Rate resulting from today’s cut might be pretty close to neutral. The neutral rate is where the Fed wants to be if they are neither trying to stimulate or slow down the economy. This is a signal to not expect more cuts in coming months, especially as inflation and recession risk are pulling the Fed in opposite directions.
Given the underlying economic fundamentals of 3% inflation coupled with a weakening–but not recessionary–labor market, the Fed is likely to hold steady in the near future. Mortgage rates are unlikely to fall or rise by much.
