Updates from Two Big Tech Firms Land This Week. What They Could Mean for the AI Trade

Two tech giants shocked Wall Street with their earnings reports in September. Now they’re under pressure to do it again.

Software giant Oracle (ORCL) will report quarterly results after the market closes on Wednesday, followed by semiconductor firm Broadcom (AVGO) on Thursday afternoon. Their shares are up 33% and 75%, respectively, since the beginning of the year—but the stocks have diverged in recent months, reflecting the anxieties driving a shift in the AI investor debate. 

Wall Street is generally optimistic about both Oracle’s and Broadcom’s upcoming earnings reports. Analysts expect both companies, among the biggest in the S&P 500, to show signs that AI demand will remain strong into next year. But recent Goldman Sachs research suggests that sector stocks may not all be pulled higher by industry-level forces in the months ahead.

Oracle in early September supplanted Nvidia as the hottest AI play on Wall Street. The stock skyrocketed 36% the day after Oracle said its cloud computing backlog more than quadrupled to nearly $500 billion. Wall Street lauded the results, calling them evidence of a “truly historic” quarter that confirmed “a seismic shift happening in computing.” 

But then reports indicated that nearly all of Oracle’s backlog growth spawned from a $300 billion, multi-year deal with OpenAI, the ChatGPT-maker that is expected to burn through more than $100 billion before turning a profit at the end of the decade. That raised concerns that too many of Oracle’s eggs were in one big, risky basket. 

Meanwhile, the debate on Wall Street about whether cloud providers like Oracle are overspending on infrastructure intensified. Oracle sold $18 billion of bonds in September to help finance its data center investments, drawing attention to the fact that its debt burden is higher and its credit rating is lower than companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META). 

Oracle’s stock languished amid concerns about customer concentration and an AI bubble. Shares are down more than 30% in the past three months, a drop that’s erased all of the stock’s post-earning gains in September. 

Semiconductor and networking equipment provider Broadcom, meanwhile, is among the best-performing tech stocks in recent months, boosted by optimism that it is chipping away at Nvidia’s (NVDA) dominance in the AI chip market.

Broadcom jumped nearly 10% after its September earnings report, when executives revealed they had secured a $10 billion order for custom chips from a new customer. As with Oracle, reports in the following days suggested the undisclosed customer was OpenAI. But unlike Oracle, Wall Street has only grown more bullish on Broadcom’s AI business—mostly because of the mid-November launch of Google’s Gemini 3, the tech giant’s first AI model to be trained exclusively with Broadcom-designed custom chips.

Silicon Valley and Wall Street insiders alike raved about the model, prompting OpenAI to reportedly refocus on improving ChatGPT to fend off stiff competition. Google has reportedly discussed selling its custom chips to Meta, further boosting confidence that Broadcom can take market share from Nvidia. 

Broadcom shares have risen nearly 20% since Google launched Gemini, outperforming both the S&P 500, up 4%, and the Magnificent Seven, up 6%. 

What This Week’s Earnings Could Mean for the AI Trade

Deutsche Bank analysts in a recent note analyzed the assumptions underpinning Wall Street’s forecast for Oracle’s business and stock. “The company is getting little if any credit for its business with OpenAI at the current share price of ~$200,” they wrote. Analysts at Citi expect Oracle to report its backlog grew $100 billion last quarter, offering “more evidence that AI infrastructure demand is broad-based.”

Bank of America earlier this month raised its price target on Broadcom stock, citing an improved outlook for Google’s custom chips. HSBC analyst Frank Lee forecast Broadcom’s results Thursday would meet expectations before custom chip and networking demand accelerate the companies’ AI business early next year.

It may, however, no longer be the case that a rising AI tide lifts all boats. According to a Goldman Sachs report, the correlation between AI hyperscaler stocks was about 20% in mid-November, down from 80% in June.

Update—December 9, 2025: This article was updated after markets closed on Tuesday with the latest stock performance data.