The fell to 99.40–99.50 on the first day of December, continuing the depreciation that began at the end of November. While the index recorded its worst weekly performance in four months, both the pricing of an aggressive for the December 9–10 meeting and expectations that a more dovish name may be appointed in place of Jerome are creating pressure. The market has almost made the possibility of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting the “base case,” which weakens demand for the dollar amid narrowing interest-rate spread advantages.
Impact of Fed Cut and Lack of Data on the Dollar
The U.S. federal government shutdown has significantly distorted the data set that shapes the Fed’s decisions. Steps such as the BLS failing to publish October and the BEA canceling Q3 leading growth figures could have reduced visibility, creating an “uncertainty premium” that would normally support the dollar. However, the tone of the other data arriving during the same period overrides this effect.
The sharp decline in consumer confidence suggests that households have become more cautious on unemployment and income. data pointing to a slowdown completes the picture. This combination weakens the strong-growth, high-rate narrative and strengthens the perception of a “soft landing and earlier easing.” Therefore, markets are increasingly pricing in the scenario that the Fed may continue to cut rates not only in December but also in the first quarter of 2026.
While dovish statements from names such as Waller, Daly, and on the FOMC front support this pricing, Powell’s emphasis that “the cut is not automatic” and the cautious wing within the Committee ensure that the decline in the dollar remains controlled. Adding to this is the possibility of a softer-profile chairman replacing Powell, bringing forward expectations of a looser policy framework for the dollar in the medium term. As a result, we are moving toward an environment where the Fed has halted the tightening cycle on both the interest-rate and balance-sheet sides, and this picture is putting fundamental downward pressure on the DXY.
Geopolitics, Other Central Banks and Risk Appetite
On the geopolitical front, the acceleration of diplomatic activity around the U.S.-backed peace plan for the Russia–Ukraine war is providing some support to global risk appetite. The recovery in Russian assets and the pullback in oil prices suggest that a more controlled scenario is emerging instead of “hard-shock” pricing. This reduces safe-haven demand for the dollar and creates downward pressure on the DXY.
Although Gaza-centered tensions in the Middle East continue, there has been neither a serious escalation nor news of a permanent resolution in recent days. Markets currently view this as a “manageable risk.” Therefore, it contributes to the general risk-appetite tone rather than exerting independent directional pressure on the DXY.
On the developed-country central-bank front, the picture is pressuring the dollar through cross-rates. BOJ President Ueda’s statement that they will evaluate the “pros and cons” of a possible at the December meeting strengthened the possibility of a genuine tightening step after years. As a result, the yen appreciated against the dollar while declined; since the yen is a significant component of the DXY basket, this movement directly pushes the index lower.
In the Eurozone, both growth and inflation give a “moderate but not alarming” picture. For now, the ECB is keeping interest rates steady and not signaling a hasty cut. In this context, EUR/USD fluctuates in a narrower band, while the main pressure on the DXY continues to come from the yen and expectations of weaker U.S. interest rates.
DXY Technical Outlook
On the daily chart, the DXY has retreated to the lower band of the short-term bullish channel it has followed since October. The sell-off from around 100.50 pushed the index below both the channel and the short-term averages. As of today, the price is testing the 99–99.5 band, where both the channel bottom line and the longer-term average are located. This area is the critical threshold for determining whether the short-term uptrend will continue.
Fibonacci retracement levels also support this picture. The 99.72 level, corresponding to the Fib 0.236 retracement from the latest bullish wave, is now the first important pivot. The price is slightly below this level; therefore, the 99.70–99.80 band has become a short-term “must-regain” resistance zone. Above this, the 100 psychological threshold and the 100.21 level constitute the nearest resistance levels to monitor. However, if these two resistances are decisively overcome, the upper target zone of 101.67 (Fib 0.382) may come into focus more strongly.
On the downside, the 3-month EMA around 99 and then the 98.50 zone (Fib 0.144) stand out as strong medium-term support. If this level is broken, it would indicate that the bullish channel is no longer valid, opening the door to a wider correction that could extend to 96.55.
The fact that the Stochastic RSI has slipped toward the oversold zone indicates potential for a short-term technical reaction. However, it should be noted that this momentum signal has not yet been confirmed by price—there is no clear reversal pattern at the channel support.
Outlook and Possible Scenarios
The current picture shows that the dollar index is at a threshold in both fundamental and technical terms. The Fed’s 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting is almost fully priced in; therefore, the next market reaction will hinge on the Fed’s guidance for 2026 and the profile of the potential successor to Powell. The relative softening in geopolitical risks and the BOJ’s relative tightening signal also continue to weigh on the DXY.
Considering this fundamental framework along with the technical outlook, the 99–99.7 band stands out as the main region where the dollar index will determine its short-term direction. The Fed meeting and subsequent will determine whether we see an upward reaction or a downside break from this support zone. If the Fed adopts a more cautious tone than expected and employment data is strong, a rebound from this zone above 100 and a new upward wave toward 101.67 would not be surprising. Conversely, a clearer easing path and weak employment data could trigger a deeper unwind toward 98.48 and below with a break of 99 support.
In sum, the dollar index is currently searching for both a new policy narrative and a new technical direction. Signals from the Fed and the employment front in the coming days may determine whether this short-term bullish channel will be maintained and how the trend in the DXY will evolve.
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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.
