After reviewing since October 1, 2025, I observe that price fluctuations are likely to persist until the Federal Reserve’s December 9-10 meeting, with recent movements driven by speculation about a potentially dovish Fed statement.
Gold futures have shown volatility this week, rising after last Friday’s low at $4058, facing resistance at $4218 on Wednesday, and then slipping on Thursday. The movements reflect growing confidence in a potential U.S. Fed rate cut in December.
Undoubtedly, this significant resistance at $4218.46 has been tested four times this month, on November 12, 13, 14, and 26, and a fifth time this Friday. This level seems to be a challenge for the bulls as they experienced a steep fall on Nov. 14, 2025, when the futures tested a low at $4035.78, before closing the day at $4089.89.
With the U.S. markets on holiday for Thanksgiving on Thursday and expected to open for a short session on Friday, trading volumes are expected to be low, which could extend the bearish pressure if the gold futures don’t find a sustainable move above this significant resistance at $4218.46.
Undoubtedly, the next resistance is at $4250.16 which has already been tested by the gold bulls on Nov. 13, 2025 from where a steep fall was seen on that day when the gold futures tested a low at $4150.35 before closing the day at $4193.94, resulting in the formation of a indecisive candle, followed by a bearish candle next day, keeping the gold futures to teeter below the immediate support at $4137 up to Nov. 25, 2025.
I find that the gold futures could remain little changed on Friday as investors eye the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and the final outcome of the Fed’s meeting on December 9-10, 2025.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the outline draft peace proposals discussed by the United States and Ukraine could become the basis of future agreements to end the conflict in Ukraine, but that if not, Russia would fight on. Putin added that Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff plans to visit Moscow early next week.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday that Ukrainian and U.S. delegations are to meet this week to work out a formula discussed at talks in Geneva to bring peace and provide guarantees for Kyiv.
Finally, I conclude that the gold futures could remain wobbly amid surging indecisiveness due to growing expectations on the Fed’s interest rate cut and the possible positive outcome of Trump’s efforts to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war.
Technical Levels to Watch
In a daily chart, gold futures, after testing a high at $4227.50, and a low at $4195.40, currently trading at $4221.30, just above the immediate resistance at $4218.46 and below the immediate resistance at $4250 amid thin volumes, indicating an upward move from here could generate selling spree soon the gold futures try to test the immediate resistance at $4250.
Inversely, a breakdown below the significant support at the 9 EMA ($4167) could push the futures to test the next support at the 20 EMA ($4127), where a breakdown could push the futures to test the next support at the 50 EMA ($4013) by next week.
In a 1-Hr. chart, gold futures look ready to find a breakdown below the immediate support at $4218.46, and if succeed next supports at the 9 EMA ($4211), 20 EMA ($4202.82) and be breached as the gold futures will try to test the next significant support at the 50 EMA ($4193) from where a possible bounce back could be seen. But, if the gold futures find a breakdown below the 50 EMA could push the futures to test the next support at 100 EMA ($4172.83).
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
