Home Depot’s Earnings Miss Estimates. Here’s What It Says About the Housing Market and Demand

Home Depot (HD) shares slid Tuesday after the home improvement retailer posted weaker-than-expected quarterly earnings and trimmed its full-year profit outlook, citing a sluggish housing market along with a lack of storms.

The stock was down 3% in recent trading, bringing its year-to-date losses to about 11%. (Read our daily markets coverage here.) 

Home Depot posted adjusted earnings per share of $3.74 for the third quarter, down 4 cents from the same time a year ago and well below the analyst consensus compiled by Visible Alpha, though revenue came in above estimates at $41.35 billion. Comparable store sales rose just 0.2%, while analysts were looking for 1.4% growth.

“Our results missed our expectations primarily due to the lack of storms in the third quarter, which resulted in greater than expected pressure in certain categories,” CEO Ted Decker said, adding that an expected boost in demand failed to materialize. “We believe that consumer uncertainty and continued pressure in housing are disproportionately impacting home improvement demand,” he said.

Home Depot lifted its full-year sales forecast to about 3% growth, up from a projection of 2.8% last quarter, with recently acquired distributor GMS expected to provide about $2 billion in sales. However, the company also said it now anticipates adjusted earnings per share to fall about 5% year-over-year, compared to an expected 3% drop previously, given continued pressure from “ongoing consumer uncertainty and housing pressure,” among other things.

JPMorgan analysts told clients following the report that “we see elements of realism (tough exit, consumer uncertainty, lack of acceleration in demand) as well as an effort by the company to also rebase 2026 forecasts,” and that Home Depot’s results could mean a miss for rival Lowe’s (LOW) when it reports on Wednesday.

Shares of Lowe’s were down about 1% Tuesday morning, and have lost about 10% in 2025 so far.