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The stunning success of the liberal D66 party in Dutch parliamentary elections last week is a good outcome for the Netherlands and for Europe as a whole. The pro-EU centrist party won 26 seats, almost triple its tally from the previous ballot in 2023. It is on level-pegging with the far-right Freedom party, which lost nearly a third of its MPs after voters punished its role in one of the most quarrelsome and ineffectual coalition governments in recent times.
The final result will be known only in the next few days. If the Freedom party, led by anti-Islam troublemaker Geert Wilders, wins the most votes, he will have the first shot at forming a government. He will fail, since the mainstream parties have ruled out working with him over his subversive antics during the last administration, if not necessarily for his extremist positions. So the baton will pass to Rob Jetten, the telegenic young D66 leader who is on course to become prime minister if he can stitch together an alliance. It will not be easy or quick.
Jetten’s positive message and focus on bridge-building and problem-solving in housing, energy and immigration struck a chord with Dutch voters tired of polemics and polarisation stirred up by Wilders. The far-right leader’s power lies in making his rivals dance to his tune. Jetten had a different one. Whether the other mainstream parties will share his spirit of compromise and agree to something that is more than government by lowest common denominator is another matter.
Given the highly fractured Dutch political landscape, it will take four parties to reach a majority. Assembling and maintaining that alliance will be no easy feat. However, it is positive that the political centre has been strengthened by this election, not just with D66’s best-ever result, but also with the revival of the Christian Democrats.
A stable but ambitious government would be a relief for the Dutch and for their European partners. Jetten campaigned on an openly pro-EU ticket, saying he wanted The Hague to be able to say Yes to EU initiatives and not always No.
Dutch flexibility could be very significant when it comes to decisions on the EU budget, long-term financial support for Ukraine or potentially more common borrowing for defence and innovation. D66’s more conservative partners may not be so accommodating, especially if Wilders is breathing down their necks.
The losses incurred by the Freedom party in this election will encourage those who maintain that the best way to puncture the appeal of populists and the far-right across Europe is to allow them to share power — and the responsibility and trade-offs it entails. Wilders’ party is a one-man band, more interested in polemics than in developing policy or personnel for government. He was also reined in by the necessity of coalition compromise in a highly fragmented party system. Other winner-takes-all polities such as Britain and France, where hard-right populists top opinion polls, lack the same constraints.
In the Netherlands, a failed experiment in far right-conservative government has dented the appeal of Wilders but boosted that of other hard-right parties that share many of his nativist policies. Overall support for the radical right has not diminished.
The Freedom party may be out of government but Wilders’ power lies in sowing division and pulling his political opponents to the right. Even D66 has toughened up its stance on migration in favour of processing asylum claims outside the EU. Immigration remains a big concern for Dutch voters, but not the only one. It is now up to the centrist parties to show that they can address those concerns constructively.
