In-brief analysis
October 27, 2025
The pace of capacity additions for U.S. biofuel production slowed in 2024, with production capacity increasing by a modest 3% from the start of 2024 to the start of 2025, according to our latest biofuels production capacity reports. A deceleration in production capacity in our category renewable diesel and other biofuels accounted for most of the slowdown in growth. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), renewable naphtha, and renewable propane make up virtually all of the other biofuels.
Renewable diesel and other biofuels
Renewable diesel and other biofuels production capacity increased just 391 million gallons per year (gal/y) in 2024, less than one-third of the growth observed in 2022 and 2023. In 2024, only two capacity additions came online, both in California: Phillips 66’s conversion of its Rodeo refinery to exclusively produce biofuels and the new Renewable Fuels LLC plant in Bakersfield.
With the completed conversion, the Rodeo plant has a capacity of 767 million gal/y, up from 180 million gal/y in last year’s report. This increase makes it the second-largest renewable diesel plant in the United States, behind Diamond Green Diesel’s 982-million-gal/y plant in Norco, Louisiana.
U.S. capacity growth from the Rodeo expansion and the 138-million-gal/y Bakersfield plant was partially offset by the loss of capacity at four facilities. Monroe Energy and Chevron stopped co-processing renewable diesel at their Trainer, Pennsylvania, and El Segundo, California, refineries, respectively. Vertex Energy and Jaxon Energy closed plants in Mobile, Alabama, and Jackson, Mississippi, respectively.
The loss of renewable diesel capacity at four facilities reflects changes to biofuel margins and petroleum refining margins since 2020. Low refinery margins and rising biofuel credit values in 2020 and 2021 prompted a wave of renewable diesel capacity announcements. As more of those plants started operations, biofuel production began exceeding target volumes, and biofuel credit values and margins decreased in 2023. At the same time, petroleum refinery margins were much stronger than their 2020 lows, resulting in a slowdown in investments to expand renewable diesel capacity for the upcoming years.
A notable shift in 2024 was the increased focus on SAF. SAF is an alternative to petroleum jet fuel that we capture in our other biofuels category. Other biofuels includes SAF, renewable heating oil, renewable naphtha, renewable propane, renewable gasoline, and other emerging biofuels. We combine other biofuels with renewable diesel capacity because other biofuels are mostly produced at renewable diesel plants as byproducts or, often in the case of SAF, in place of renewable diesel. Following the completion of conversion projects in 2024, Phillips 66’s Rodeo plant can shift about 150 million gal/y of its renewable diesel production capacity to SAF, and Diamond Green Diesel can shift about 235 million gal/y to SAF.
Biodiesel
In addition to slower growth in renewable diesel production capacity, biodiesel production capacity decreased slightly. In 2024, eight biodiesel plants closed due to poor margins, resulting in a loss of about 100 million gal/y of production capacity.
Fuel ethanol
Unlike renewable diesel and biodiesel, U.S. fuel ethanol production capacity increased more in 2024 than in previous years. Fuel ethanol accounts for 73% of all biofuels production capacity, with a total of almost 18.5 billion gallons of capacity per year. Most of this production is concentrated in Midwest states, where corn is produced for feedstock. Because U.S. fuel ethanol consumption has been somewhat flat in recent years, the increased capacity is mostly contributing to growing exports of ethanol.
We updated the following reports in September:
These reports contain annual estimates of biofuels production capacity for operating plants as of January 1, 2025.
Principal contributors: Carolyn Hronis, Jimmy Troderman
