How Easy Is It for Athletes to Manipulate Sports Prop Bets?

Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier on Thursday became the latest player to be accused of a criminal gambling scheme involving NBA prop bets.

Rozier, Portland Trail Blazers coach Chauncey Billups, and former NBA player Damon Jones were among more than 30 people arrested in a pair of mob-linked gambling schemes, federal prosecutors allege, with Rozier and five others accused of using insider information to place bets on NBA contests.

Prosecutors allege that in March 2023, when Rozier was a member of the Charlotte Hornets, he took himself out of a game prematurely with a fake injury so other members of the scheme could wager on the “under” on prop bets tied to his statistics.

Rozier’s case is connected to that of former Toronto Raptors center Jontay Porter, who was banned from the league last year for his role in a prop bet scheme and was mentioned seven times in the indictment Thursday. Porter pleaded guilty to conspiracy charges involving manipulating his performance in two games during the 2023-24 campaign, and is awaiting sentencing.

Prop bets on very specific individual statistics—”Player X over/under 2.5 rebounds” or “Player Y will score 8-12 points”—are easier to manipulate by one athlete than a final game outcome, for example, and leagues have flagged that prop bets involving bench players—such as Rozier was at the time—are more vulnerable, because public scrutiny is lower.

Just Tuesday, in fact, NBA commissioner Adam Silver said in an interview that the league had “asked some of our partners to pull back some of the prop bets, especially when they’re on two-way (contracts), guys who don’t have the same stake in the competition, where it’s too easy to manipulate something, which seems otherwise small and inconsequential to the overall score,” according to ESPN. “We’re trying to put in place—learning as we go and working with the betting companies—some additional control to prevent some of that manipulation.”

Sports Leagues No Longer Keep Their Distance From Gambling Firms

After decades of trying to keep their distance, sports leagues increasingly are comfortable with gambling companies.

The NFL and NHL have teams in Las Vegas, and MLB’s Athletics franchise will be relocating to the sports-gambling mecca in 2028. DraftKings (DKNG) and Flutter Entertainment’s (FLUT) FanDuel are official “sports betting partners” with multiple leagues, and just yesterday, the NHL announced that Kalshi and Polymarket had become their “official prediction market partners,” as sports “event contracts” become more popular.

DraftKings, FanDuel Say Technology, Monitoring Root Out Illegal Behavior

“When reports surface that players or coaches are participating in sports betting against league rules or illegally, media frequently blames such activity on the spread of legal sports wagering,” the American Gaming Association says. “But these investigations—and the headlines they generate—are made possible because sports betting is legal, transparent and regulated. Early detection and high-profile reporting of suspicious activity is a sign that the guardrails of the legal marketplace are playing their intended role.” 

In the aftermath of today’s arrests, official NBA partners DraftKings and FanDuel both put out statements advocating for regulated sports betting to root out illegal behavior and maintain games’ integrity.

“We fundamentally believe that regulated online sports betting is the best way forward to monitor for and detect suspicious behavior while offering consumer protections backed by advanced technology, neither of which exist in the pervasive illegal market,” a DraftKings spokesperson said. “While regulation cannot eliminate all concerns related to game integrity, it significantly reduces risks by enabling collaboration between operators, leagues, teams, and relevant authorities to identify and hold accountable anyone engaged in illegal behavior.”

“Today’s events are deeply disturbing, and should concern fans, athletes, and everyone who loves sports and values integrity and fair play,” a FanDuel spokesperson said. “They also illustrate the stark contrast between legal and illegal betting markets. At FanDuel, we use advanced technology and real-time monitoring to identify suspicious activity and work closely with leagues, data monitoring groups, and law enforcement.”