:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/GettyImages-2241791887-fba91413284c4fc7a8a8eccf2d676ed4.jpg "Here’s How Much Traders Expect Tesla Stock To Move After Earnings This Week")
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Key Takeaways
- Options pricing suggests traders expect Tesla’s stock could move about 7% in either direction in the days after its third-quarter earnings report on Wednesday’s afternoon.
- Wall Street analysts are split on the outlook for Tesla’s stock, but most believe the stock is currently overvalued.
- Investors will be looking for updates on lower-cost models, the rollout of robotaxi services, and progress on Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot.
Tesla (TSLA) is scheduled to report third-quarter results after the bell on Wednesday, and some traders are betting the electric vehicle maker’s stock will jump to its highest level since last December on the results.
Options pricing suggests traders expect Tesla stock could move about 7% in either direction by the end of this week. A move of that size off last week’s close would put shares at about $470, their second-highest closing price ever, or at about $409, their lowest price in over month.
Tesla stock tends to be volatile after the company’s earnings. Shares have moved an average of 9.6% the day after its four most recent reports. The stock soared more than 20% this time last year after Tesla topped analyst estimates and said it was on track to deliver a long-promised lower-cost vehicle. (Those models were finally announced earlier this month.) The reception to Tesla’s three reports since has been slightly more muted, but shares still tumbled more than 8% after its results came up short in July.
Why This Matters To Investors
Earnings reports are often catalysts for large stock moves, with investors using forecasts or major corporate announcements to recalibrate their expectations, and anticipation of an abnormally large stock move could reflect either extreme optimism or pessimism about the upcoming results.
Tesla shares have been on a wild ride this year, starting 2025 near an all-time high amid optimism about CEO Elon Musk’s relationship with President Donald Trump. Shares were dragged down throughout the first quarter by President Trump’s tariffs on cars, aluminum, and steel, as well as a public backlash against Musk’s political efforts. They’ve rebounded in the months since Musk had a fallout with the president and vowed to spend more time focusing on Tesla and his other businesses. The stock is up nearly 10% since the start of the year, as of Monday afternoon.
Tesla delivered more cars than Wall Street expected in the third quarter. Investors will be looking to Wednesday’s results for commentary on new low-cost models and how the recent expiration of electric vehicle tax credits will affect future sales. Updates on the rollouts of full-self driving software, robotaxis, and Tesla’s humanoid robot Optimus, could also get substantial airtime on the post-earnings call Wednesday.
Analysts are split on the outlook for Tesla stock over the next year. Three of the 13 analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha recommend selling the stock, while four assign it a “hold” rating. The remaining six call it a buy. Their average price target is about $363, about 17% below Friday’s close.
