:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/GettyImages-2204393291-25cedffe21b244b0a56d9eda125ad382.jpg "Oracle’s Stock Was a Big September Winner. Why Has It Turned South?")
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Key Takeaways
- Oracle is one of the day’s biggest S&P 500 decliners, with the shares giving back some of the big gains they posted in September.
- Back then, an upbeat outlook pulled the shares higher. Now it looks like investors are looking under the hood a bit more closely.
Oracle gave the AI trade a big shot in the arm last month. That shot is a little bit of a sore spot these days.
Shares of the cloud computing and software giant were recently off about 7%, making them one of the day’s biggest S&P 500 decliners. That still has Oracle (ORCL) up some 75% this year, but at around $292 they’re about 11% off the September highs logged after the company reported big quarterly results and an impressive outlook—along with a stock pop that marked its biggest jump since the 1990s, briefly making Larry Ellison the world’s richest person.
Today’s slide suggests that investors heard things they didn’t like during a presentation yesterday at which executives shared revenue and earnings per share targets for fiscal 2030 of $225 billion and $21, respectively, both pointing toward substantial growth through the rest of the decade.
So what was it? Wall Street analysts—even the bullish ones, which according to Visible Alpha is most of them—offered a few suggestions.
Why This Matters to Investors
Renewed trade concerns have taken air out of some high-flying stocks in recent days as investors deal with a fresh bout of volatility, and a pullback in shares of Oracle likely can’t be completely divorced from that context. But the downbeat investor reaction to a management presentation this week may also indicate a shift back to wait-and-see mode after a September climb.
Deutsche Bank analysts said some investors may have hoped for more information about the company’s capital expenditure plans. Jefferies noted worries about a reliance on revenue from OpenAI. UBS made similar comments about the importance of big Oracle customers while observing that the profit outlook “likely landed short of some investor expectations.”
The takeaway may be no more complex than a decision by investors that the stock, which remains roughly 30% above its lowest September finish, had climbed enough for now pending results that back up Oracle’s vision. Visible Alpha’s mean price target is around $340, representing a 9% premium to Thursday’s close.
“Though Oracle is well positioned as a major beneficiary of the AI platform shift, shares are likely to remain range-bound in the near term as the company focuses on building out capacity to meet its targets,” William Blair analysts wrote today.
