Economic Data Blackout Could Become Data Dark Age As Shutdown Drags On

Missed economic reports by government statistical agencies have economists wondering what will happen if the data simply never arrives. 

Experts have assumed that the government’s statistical agencies will play catch-up once the government reopens and publish belated reports for October, as they have done in past shutdowns. But with the current shutdown looking like it could be the longest in history, economists are starting to consider what will happen if agencies skip reporting October entirely and it becomes just a blank spot on future historical charts.

“As the shutdown drags on with no end in sight, risks are mounting for October’s report,” Sarah House and Nicole Cervi, economists at Wells Fargo Securities, wrote in a commentary. “At a minimum, collection rates stand to be lower with data gathering still suspended, and the risk is rising that the publication of the October CPI report could be skipped entirely.”

The problem is that the data, including for inflation and job creation, is based on massive surveys. With the Bureau of Labor Statistics closed, those surveys aren’t being carried out. (With the important exception of the Consumer Price Index report for September, which will be published Oct. 24.)

“If the shutdown continues, it’s possible that, for the first time in at least six decades, there will be a full month gap in data about jobs and unemployment in the U.S. economy,” Elise Gould, senior economist at the progressive Economic Policy Institute think tank, and Joe Fast, a research assistant, wrote in a commentary.

The data drought is taking place at a time when economists and policymakers are hungrier than usual for information. President Donald Trump’s policies—imposing tariffs, cracking down on immigration, and firing federal workers en masse—have sent shockwaves through the economy that experts are still trying to measure.

Recent reports have shown the job market slowing down at the same time tariffs push up inflation, raising red flags about the economy entering a period of slow growth and high inflation, or “stagflation.”

“These data delays can lead economic actors (e.g., the Federal Reserve, Congress, investors, and employers) to fall behind the curve of economic events and hence make suboptimal decisions,” Gould and Fast wrote.

Thursday was supposed to be a big day for economic data. The Bureau of Economic Analysis was scheduled to publish its Personal Consumption Expenditures report for September. That monthly status check on consumer income, spending, and inflation is data the Federal Reserve uses as its yardstick for whether inflation is running at its target of a 2% annual rate.

The Census Bureau was supposed to publish its monthly advance retail sales report for September, a key indicator for how willing and able U.S. households are to keep the economy chugging along with their spending. The Department of Labor was scheduled to publish its weekly jobless claims report, a crucial and timely indicator of the labor market’s health.

Instead, those reports have all been delayed indefinitely as a result of the ongoing government shutdown, which began on Oct. 1 and has no end in sight. The data blackout has left economists and officials at the Fed to judge the state of the economy by measures they previously considered secondary, such as ADP’s jobs report and the Federal Reserve’s “Beige Book” which is based on anecdotes.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that the lack of official data is complicating the Fed’s job as it tries to set its key interest rate.

“Although private-sector data alternatives are available and a helpful complement to official statistics, they are less informative when they stand alone,” Waller said in prepared remarks at an event in New York Thursday. “The delay in the September employment report in particular makes it harder to know whether the labor market is continuing to soften or is stabilizing.”