The data cited record-high price-to-rent ratios, slowing price growth and affordability concerns. It also noted that while a cooling of home prices is expected, a “precipitous drop anywhere in the near time future” is not projected.
Even so, the headline labeling Miami as world’s No. 1 bubble market drew sharp reactions from local industry voices — including Ana Bozovic, founder of Analytics Miami, and Tim Weisheyer, president of Florida Realtors.
Each of them told HousingWire that the UBS assessment ignores key realities — from the region’s uniquely high share of all-cash transactions to strong job growth and domestic wealth migration.
Bozovic: Cash transactions remain key
Bozovic didn’t mince words when describing her view of the UBS report.
“The reason they call it clickbait is because they know full well that when they lead with a headline saying that Miami is a bubble, that in most people’s eyes, that means that a crash is imminent,” she said.
“When you make a bold headline declaring ‘No. 1 bubble in the world,’ what are you implying? You’re implying that there’s going to be a precipitous crash — and it’s alarmist.”
She said Miami’s heavy use of all-cash home sales fundamentally separates it from cities that have seen speculative, debt-driven housing booms.
“We have an astoundingly high all-cash market … and the fact that that is not emphasized in this report is beyond belief,” she said. “This market has been buoyed up by cash. Miami’s condo market is over 70% all cash. … If it’s past $2,000 a square foot — both the single-family and the condo market — over 80% all cash.”
UBS’s index measures bubble risk on a scale; low (below 0.5), moderate (0.5 to 1.0), elevated (1.0 to 1.5), and high (above 1.5).
Different kind of boom, fundamentally
Bozovic also wanted to dispel comparisons to the 2008 financial crisis.
“The bubble that everyone’s going to think of when they use Miami in this headline is one that was created by an unsustained usage of irresponsible debt overleveraging,” she said. “Then when you have a precipitous crash, such as what occurred then, it’s almost always when the underlying assets can no longer sustain the debt load.
“Then it collapses like a house of flammable cards because the whole thing was driven up by debt. That is diametrically opposite to what’s happening in this market right now.”
Bozovic pointed to Miami’s booming influx of domestic wealth as a powerful, often misunderstood market driver.
“In the high end of our market — past $3,000 a square foot — we’re up 3,400% in transaction volume versus pre-COVID,” she said. “The very high end is almost in a world of its own. Why? Because of domestic wealth and talent.”
She said Florida’s tax policies continue to attract investors and entrepreneurs.
“Miami and South Florida continues to be a destination for domestic wealth,” Bozovic said. “We’re perceived as one of the destinations in this country and in the world that is very friendly toward wealth and capital,” she said.
Inventory remains balanced, not overheated, she added.
“Our inventory levels are still below where they were pre-COVID,” Bozovic said. “Within the context of a bubble discussion, if we’re saying that there is a dangerous situation, one thing you might expect to see is a sharp increase in inventory — meaning the market is not clearing. That’s not happening.”
Weisheyer: Perception outpacing reality
Weisheyer echoed that sentiment, saying that many reports exaggerate Florida’s market risks while overlooking its fundamentals.
“I don’t think buyers are really looking at that, to be honest,” he said. “When some of these higher-level reports come out, they’re speculative. Buyers are calling their Realtor and saying, ‘Hey, what does this really mean?’”
He said real estate markets in Miami and Florida remain healthy — emphasizing that no red flags are being observed at the state level.
“When you look at the South Florida market, it’s also always very important to note that it’s such a condo-heavy market, and also an international-heavy market,” Weisheyer said.
Interest rates and demand rebalance
Weisheyer said Florida buyers have become more adaptable as mortgage rates stabilize.
“For so long, buyers had concerns around interest rates and even a perception that rates were high,” he said. “Buyers are realizing now that if they can get a 6% interest rate — or even negotiate terms with their lender and their seller to do an interest rate buydown — that it’s still a great choice to buy a home and lock into that, as opposed to dealing with rent increases that will be realized over time.”
Markets like Miami, Orlando and Tampa continue to draw buyers because of strong job growth and development, Weisheyer added.
“The Florida market is dynamic, and there’s a lot of momentum coming into the southeast United States,” he said. “Florida is the state that’s leading the way on that.”
Insurance costs
Weisheyer also addressed insurance concerns, saying that public perception hasn’t caught up with reality.
“We certainly will have buyers from time to time that will express a concern without really understanding if it’s a true concern or not,” he said. “They’ll read a headline that talks about the insurance market in Florida and the increases that were realized.
“Well, then, when I sit with them and say that we’ve had 17 new insurance carriers come into the state, and Florida has the lowest year-over-year premium increase of any state in the entire nation, they say, ‘Really? I don’t think I really understood that.’”
Premiums are often misunderstood because rising home values influence replacement costs, Weisheyer added
“A big part of that is the cost of labor and commodities certainly impacting the replacement cost of homes, and the cost of repairing a home,” he said. “The second thing, which is really a blessing, is that home values are at a really strong place right now, so their premiums are derived by what would it cost to replace this home.”
Weisheyer dismissed talk of a housing bubble outright.
“I wouldn’t even call it a bubble, but I understand that’s their term,” he said. “I don’t see a bubble to any extent. Miami has been such a hot market with such incredible demand and so much growth — including attracting a lot of individuals from the financial services sector down into the marketplace.
“When you layer in the impacts of COVID, there was just a major push into all of our metro markets and submarkets across the state.”
Market changes being observed today should be viewed as an inevitable return to earth, not a red flag, Weisheyer said.
“We’re in a transition market where you came out of radical growth over a period of time with home values and demands on inventory, and now we find ourselves in a very balanced market,” he said. “This is the type of market we want, where buyers and sellers both have options.”
