Donald Trump said yesterday that gasoline prices will be “below two dollars at some point in the pretty near future” and has a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas to back it up. While President Trump did not win the Nobel Peace prize because he only resolved 6 or 7 conflicts and hopefully secured the release of maybe 20 Israeli hostages, his actions have helped with his goal to lower oil prices. Fox News said the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas went into effect at 12:00 PM Eastern Time marking the end of a brutal war that has gone on for more than two years. Now it’s up to Hamas to release the hostages.
President Trump’s ceasefire announcement immediately took the premium out of the price of oil, not because of Israel and Hamas but also the reduction of a risk that Iranian proxies would continue to attack oil vessels in the Red Sea and other places. And while President Trump has about $1.10 to get the national average below $2.00 a gallon, we could realistically see gas below $2.00 a gallon in many places in the country.
Today AAA says the national average for Regular Unleaded is $3.10 a gallon. Their price is down from $3.152 a week ago and down 11.2 cents from a year ago. Governor Newsom in California is making the average higher than it needs to be with the cost of Regular Unleaded at $4.664 a gallon.
Yet regardless, the talk of a potential ceasefire is raising hopes that we could maybe even see progress later on between Russia and the Ukraine because of President Trump’s resolve is pushing oil prices to the lower end of the trading range. Major support on the lower end of the trading range is just below $60.00 at 5990 but realistically $60.00 needs to hold on a closing basis or it could open up the door for further selling to the downside. If that happens more than likely we will see sub $2.00 gasoline in a lot of states.
Natural gas prices sold off after a bearish report, and many natural gas producers are wondering why they continue to produce so much gas. The EIA said that as of Friday, October 3, 2025, there were 3,641 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas stored in the U.S. This is 80 Bcf more than last week. Compared to last year at this time, there’s 23 Bcf more in storage, and it’s also 157 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 3,484 Bcf. Right now, the amount of gas stored is within the normal range for the past five years.
The reality is that the demand for natural gas continues to be below production, and there’s a lot of wasted gas that, at some point in the future, we will be able to take advantage of. Still the demand for natural gas is going to be at a record high but you can see the prolific nature of the US natural gas producer. Some producers suggest the government could support prices by paying natural gas producers not to produce, like programs for farmers.
Jodi Shafto at Natural Gas Intelligence writes possible increases in record storage levels for a mild winter contributed to a decline in natural gas forward prices during the trading period from October 2–8. Traders shifted their attention from early seasonal cold spells to storage data and market fundamentals.
Weather shifts definitely played a part. Fox Weather reports that, “A brewing nor’easter is expected to slam the Atlantic Seaboard over multiple days with heavy rains, ‘major’ coastal flooding and potentially damaging wind gusts. Over its multiple day journey up the coast, the storm is set to thrash the coastal Carolinas Saturday, then spread its impacts into the Northeast on Sunday. Forecasters in New Jersey are warning of possible major coastal flooding over the latter half of the weekend in the southern half of the state, with even the potential need for some evacuations.
