What’s At Stake In the Latest Government Shutdown Showdown

The latest battle over the government’s budget could determine how much you pay for health insurance in the years ahead.

The Senate on Friday rejected Republican and Democrat-led measures to keep the government running, raising the possibility of a government shutdown Oct. 1. All 48 Democrats in the Senate voted to block a Republican-led funding bill that had passed the House of Representatives Friday. Republicans had earlier voted down a Democrat-led bill that would have kept the government open, reversed the Medicaid funding cuts in the “One Big, Beautiful Bill,” and extended Biden-era Affordable Healthcare Act health insurance subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year.

Although Democrats have only 48 votes in the Senate compared to the Republicans’ 52, the minority party can still block legislation using the filibuster rule.

An analysis by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office published Thursday clarified the stakes of the dispute. Extending the COVID-19-era Affordable Care Act subsidies would allow 3.8 million more people to have health insurance by 2035, at a cost of increasing federal spending deficits by $350 billion, according to the analysis.

People with health care plans bought through Affordable Care Act marketplaces could have their premiums rise by double or triple-digit percentages, depending on their situation, when the credits expire next year, according to an analysis Friday by KFF, a nonpartisan healthcare research organization. For example, annual premiums for a 49-year-old couple with a 19-year-old child making $90,000 a year would increase by $2,718 to $8,964, a 44% jump.

Democrats are using the potential shutdown as leverage to renew a debate from earlier in the summer about health care spending. Trump’s signature tax and spending law reduces spending on Medicaid starting in 2027, a move that, together with the expiration of Biden-era Obamacare tax credits, is expected to result in millions of people losing health care coverage and possibly closing down facilities all over the country.

“The House Republican-only spending bill fails to meet the needs of the American people and does nothing to stop the looming health care crisis,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat from New York, said in a statement this week.

Republicans blasted Democrats for blocking the continuing resolution, or CR, which would temporarily fund the government while a longer-term funding bill is worked out.

“The Republican bill is a clean, nonpartisan, short-term continuing resolution to fund the government to give us time to do the full appropriations process,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a Republican from South Dakota, said Friday on the Senate floor. “The Democrat bill is the exact opposite. It’s what you might call not a clean CR, a dirty CR, laden down with partisan policies and appeals to the Democrats’ leftist base.”