Tariff Revenues Jumped By $95 Billion This Year, But the Courts Could Force a Refund

Revenue from President Donald Trump’s tariffs jumped in August, but it’s not clear if the federal government will be able to keep the funds, as a court case challenges whether the president’s tariff policies are legal.

Tariffs brought in $30 billion in revenues in August, and a total of $165 billion in tariff revenues have been collected so far this year, data released by the Treasury Department showed. By comparison, tariffs in August 2024 brought in $7 billion in revenue, for a year-to-date total of $70 billion in the same period.

That means that the U.S. has collected $95 billion in new tariffs so far this year. However, the Trump administration may have to refund some or all of those funds if a recent ruling against the tariffs is upheld.

Bessent Sees Refunds if Tariffs Lose in Court

A federal appeals court earlier this month found that Trump didn’t have the authority to use the International Economic Emergency Powers Act to levy the tariffs. The case is being appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, and a top U.S. official has warned that a court loss could mean that the government would have to refund that revenue.

“We would have to give a refund on about half the tariffs which would be terrible for the treasury,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told NBC’s “Meet the Press”

In a court filing, Bessent asserted that between $750 billion and $1 trillion in tariffs could be collected by June 2026, which is when the Supreme Court is likely to issue its ruling. The court agreed to conduct an expedited review of Trump’s tariffs, with arguments set for November.

Government Has Other Legal Avenues for Tariffs

But even if the Supreme Court does rule against the Trump tariffs, it doesn’t mean that they would definitely go away, wrote Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial. The Trump administration has several other legal strategies that it can pursue to restore tariffs, he wrote. It’s also unclear whether the court would in fact require the U.S. to refund tariffs that have already collected.

“Regardless of how the highest U.S. court rules, expect most of the current tariffs to remain in place,” Buchbinder wrote.

Not all tariffs are affected by the court ruling. The “reciprocal tariffs” that have been set on many trading partners, and the tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico targeting fentanyl are the ones being challenged in court. Sector-specific tariffs on things like foreign cars, steel, and copper will remain in place, since they were imposed using a different legal justification and are not part of the court case.